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On the relative roles of El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole events on the Monsoon Onset over Kerala

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Abstract

Interannual variations of the monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK) have been studied using data from over 60 years (1948–2009) of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and outgoing long-wave radiation. The sea surface temperature fields over the North Indian Ocean associated with the MOK have been examined in association with El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events which originate in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, respectively. An analysis of the tropical convective maximum showed significant differences in its strength and location during the El Nino, IOD, early, normal, and delayed MOK composites. Further, we also looked into the role of the convective systems formed over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal on MOK. The most significant features during early (delayed) MOK years is the abnormal persistence of westerlies (easterlies) several days prior to MOK and enhanced (suppressed) deep convection over the southeastern Arabian Sea and the southern Bay of Bengal. Moisture builds up over peninsular India several pentads prior to MOK during La Nina, negative IOD, and concurrent La Nina and negative IOD years as compared to the El Nino, positive IOD, and concurrent El Nino and positive IOD years, indicating its significant role on MOK. The monsoon Hadley cell and Walker circulations are weaker (stronger) during a delayed (early) MOK. Further, the sea surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific are negative (positive) during delayed (early) MOK.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the various agencies for providing the different datasets used in the present study. Freeware Ferret and GMT were used for preparing the figures. They are also thankful to the two anonymous reviewers for vastly improving an earlier version of the manuscript. Syam Sankar acknowledges financial support from the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, New Delhi. This is NIO (C.S.I.R) contribution number 4779.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Physical Oceanography Division, National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa, 403004, India

    Syam Sankar & M. R. Ramesh Kumar

  2. Oceanography Department, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Chris Reason

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  1. Syam Sankar
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  2. M. R. Ramesh Kumar
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  3. Chris Reason
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Correspondence to M. R. Ramesh Kumar.

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Sankar, S., Kumar, M.R.R. & Reason, C. On the relative roles of El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole events on the Monsoon Onset over Kerala. Theor Appl Climatol 103, 359–374 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0306-7

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