Abstract
Previous studies reported an “abrupt regime shift” in the relationship between the East African short rains (EASR), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) around 1982. Using observational datasets over the 1951–2018 period, the relationship between large-scale circulation anomalies and EASR before and after 1982 is investigated. Two physical processes that account for rainfall formation over East Africa (EA) are proposed. First, warming over the western Indian Ocean induces Rossby waves that trigger meridional wind convergence anomalies. These are linked with positive rainfall anomalies over EA. Second, strengthened lower level easterly winds over the equatorial Indian Ocean led to a surge of moisture flux flow toward EA, hence contributes to the formation of rainfall. Factors related to positive (negative) rainfall anomalies are of keen interest. They frequently occurred after (before) the regime shift of 1982 than prior to (after) the regime shift. For wet years, co-occurrence of El Niño and positive IOD events’ contribution is more comparable to pure positive IOD and El Niño events. For dry years, the co-occurrence of La Niña and negative IOD is quite similar to pure negative IOD events. This paper studies the major regime shifts of 1982 and 1997. The decadal variations around 1982 (1997) are linked with suppressed (enhanced) rainfall over EA. Therefore, the dynamics governing the relationship between winds, Indian, Pacific Ocean SST, and EASR varies on an interdecadal scale. Understanding the cause of this variability is needed to achieve an improved long-lead empirical rainfall predictions.
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Data availability
The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
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Acknowledgements
The author wishes to thank the anonymous reviewers for their comments on this study. Finally, the author extends appreciation to CRU and CHIRPS for rainfall datasets, NOAA–National Climate Data Center and UK Met Office Hadley Centre for SST datasets, JAMSTEC for IOD index, NOAA for Niño 3.4 index and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis atmospheric variables datasets. The author extends his gratitude to Isaac Sarfo and Brandon J. Bethel for editing early versions of this manuscript.
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Kebacho, L.L. Large-scale circulations associated with recent interannual variability of the short rains over East Africa. Meteorol Atmos Phys 134, 10 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00846-6
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-021-00846-6