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Changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 future climate projections

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Abstract

The response of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) to climate change is examined using simulations from 16 coupled climate models under the A2 emission scenario carried out for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Characteristics of the austral summer SPCZ in the late twenty-first century are compared with the late twentieth century: the orientation and latitude of the SPCZ precipitation band; the area and intensity of precipitation within the SPCZ; and the eastern extent of the SPCZ. Changes in the SPCZ position are examined using a simple linear fit to the band of maximum precipitation and using a “pattern matching” technique. Both techniques find no consistent shift in the slope or mean latitude of the austral summer SPCZ. However, many models simulate a westward shift in the eastern edge of the SPCZ in austral summer, with reduced precipitation to the east of around 150°W. The westward contraction of the SPCZ is associated with a strengthening of the trade winds in the southeast Pacific and an increased zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the South Pacific. The majority of models simulate an increase in the area of the SPCZ and in mean and maximum precipitation within the SPCZ, defined by a 6 mm/day precipitation threshold, consistent with increased moisture convergence in a warmer climate. Changes in the SPCZ response to ENSO are examined using ENSO precipitation composites. The SPCZ has a reduced slope and is shifted towards the equator in the A2 multi-model mean El Niño composite.

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Acknowledgments

The research discussed in this paper was conducted with the support of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP), a program supported by AusAID, in collaboration with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). Alex Sen Gupta and Rob Colman provided helpful comments on the manuscript. The participants of the 2010 SPCZ Workshop in Apia, Samoa provided useful and stimulating discussion. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their comments. We acknowledge the modelling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy.

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  1. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Australia

    Josephine R. Brown, Aurel F. Moise & Francois P. Delage

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  1. Josephine R. Brown
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Correspondence to Josephine R. Brown.

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Brown, J.R., Moise, A.F. & Delage, F.P. Changes in the South Pacific Convergence Zone in IPCC AR4 future climate projections. Clim Dyn 39, 1–19 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1192-0

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