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Forecast skill of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP GFS dynamical extended range forecasts

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Abstract

This study examines the forecast performance of tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) in recent dynamical extended range forecast (DERF) experiments conducted with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) model. The present study extends earlier work by comparing prediction skill of the northern winter ISO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) between the current and earlier experiments. Prediction skill for the northern summer ISO is also investigated. Since the boreal summer ISO exhibits northward propagation as well as eastward propagation along the equator, forecast skill for both components is computed. For the 5-year period from 1 January, 1998 through 31 December, 2002, 30-day forecasts were made once a day. Compared to the previous DERF experiment, the current model has shown some improvements in forecasting the ISO during winter season so that the skillful forecasts (anomaly correlation>0.6) for upper-level zonal wind anomaly extend from the previous shorter-than 5 days out to 7 days lead-time. A similar level of skill is seen for both northward and eastward propagation components during the summer season as in the winter case. Results also show that forecasts from extreme initial states are more skillful than those from null phases for both seasons, extending the skillful range by 3–6 days. For strong ISO convection phases, the GFS model performs better during the summer season than during the winter season. In summer forecasts, large-scale circulation and convection anomalies exhibit northward propagation during the peak phase. In contrast, the GFS model still has difficulties in sustaining ISO variability during the northern winter as in the previous DERF run. That is, the forecast does not maintain the observed eastward propagating signals associated with large-scale circulation; rather the forecast anomalies appear to be stationary at their initial location and decay with time. The NCEP Coupled Forecast System produces daily operational forecasts and its predication skill of the MJO will be reported in the future.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Drs. Huug van den Dool and Wanqiu Wang for their valuable comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank Drs. Ken Sperber and Duane Waliser for their careful reviews and constructive comments, which improved the manuscript. We are also grateful to Dr. Edwin Schneider for his kind proofreading. C. Jones was supported by a National Science Foundation grant (ATM-0094387).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. RSIS/Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA, 5200 Auth Rd., Camp Springs, Maryland, 20746, USA

    K. -H. Seo & J. -K. E. Schemm

  2. Institute for Computational Earth System Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA

    C. Jones

  3. Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland, USA

    S. Moorthi

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  1. K. -H. Seo
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Correspondence to K. -H. Seo.

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Seo, K.H., Schemm, J.K.E., Jones, C. et al. Forecast skill of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation in the NCEP GFS dynamical extended range forecasts. Clim Dyn 25, 265–284 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0035-2

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