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Surface Temperature Evaluation and Future Projections Over India Using CMIP5 Models

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Abstract

The rapid change in Earth’s surface temperature is affecting the patterns of weather and climate. Such changes have a large impact, especially on agriculture and water resources throughout the world, and therefore, the projection of surface temperature in the near future is an urgent need. The current study is aimed to evaluate model performance in simulating the surface temperature (T), surface maximum temperature (Tmax) and surface minimum temperature (Tmin) over the land points of India under historical experiment (1971–2005) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Eyeball verification of spatial distribution, bias, skill score and Taylor diagram is used to evaluate the model’s performance during 1971–2005. The relatively better performing models are used for future projection (2021–2055) of temperature under representative concentrations pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, and the Student's t test at 99% and 95% confidence levels are applied for a limit of certainty. Under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, an increase of 0.5–0.6 °C in T at a 99% confidence level is noticed over the regions of North Central (NC), North West (NW) and West-Central (WC) India, while an increase of 0.2–0.5 °C is found over other regions of India. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test, at a 95% confidence level, suggests the maximum warming trend of Tmax in March/April and Tmin in December/February for the period of 1971–2005, and a similar trend in Tmax (March/April) and Tmin (December/February) may be possible in the near future (2021–2055).

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(source: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India)

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP’s) Working Group on CMIP5, and thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their CMIP5 model outputs. The authors wish to express their gratitude towards the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing the gridded data for this study.

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Kumar, P., Sarthi, P.P. Surface Temperature Evaluation and Future Projections Over India Using CMIP5 Models. Pure Appl. Geophys. 176, 5177–5201 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-019-02203-6

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