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System dynamic modeling of CO2 emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040

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Abstract

Transportation sector is the second largest producer of greenhouse gas in Malaysia next to energy sector. It contributes to nearly 28 % of annual national carbon emissions due to its heavy dependency of hydrocarbons such as gasoline. If not properly managed, carbon dioxide emissions per capita are expected to nearly double in the next 5 years. Lack of interdisciplinary study on this sector has caused proper mitigation initiatives to be delayed, compounding the damage to the ecosystem. The objective of this study is to develop a dynamic probabilistic model to determine emissions and pollutants of transportation system in Malaysia using Analytica software, with focus on passenger cars for its large number over other vehicle classes. Several vehicle fleet management policies based on several key governmental, industrial and stakeholder’s intervention have been constructed and analyzed for a period of 25 years. This analysis found that greenhouse gas emissions and pollutants in 2040 can be reduced by up to 80 %, compared to emissions of 2020, without any adverse effect on vehicle demand nor the economy. However, without proper intervention, personal transportation system in Malaysia will generate nearly 80,000 kilotons of greenhouse gas annually by the year 2040.

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Adapted from the World Bank (2016)

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Majlis Amanah Rakyat (MARA Malaysia) for providing financial support for this project. The funder has neither conflict of interest nor any influence over any stage of this manuscript’s production. The authors are grateful to the associate editor and the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments and suggestions. Also, extension of thanks to Ibnu Susanto for his helpful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Sustainable Energy and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka University, 2-1 Yamadaoka, Suita, 565-0871, Osaka, Japan

    Muhammad Azmi & Akihiro Tokai

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  1. Muhammad Azmi
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  2. Akihiro Tokai
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Correspondence to Muhammad Azmi.

Appendices

Appendix 1

See Table 3.

Appendix 2

See Table 4.

Table 4 Distribution of vehicle engine size
Full size table

Appendix 3

See Table 5.

Table 5 Malaysia energy generation plan until 2040.
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Appendix 4

See Table 6.

Table 6 Emission factors for stationary combustion in the energy industries, IPCC (2006) guidelines; chapter 2: stationary combustion, kg of greenhouse gas per TJ on a net calorific basis
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Appendix 5

See Fig. 9.

Fig. 9
figure 9

Simplified view of model variables

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Azmi, M., Tokai, A. System dynamic modeling of CO2 emissions and pollutants from passenger cars in Malaysia, 2040. Environ Syst Decis 36, 335–350 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10669-016-9612-7

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