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Variations and change in south American streamflow

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Abstract

Long-term hydroclimatological records in tropical South America have been analyzed in order to determine whether or not there have been significant changes in the hydrological cycle. Streamflow data from several rivers in Peru, Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela, as well as rainfall in Northeast Brazil have been used here for the study of long-term and interannual variations on hydrological conditions in different regions of South America. The Mann-Kendall statistical test is applied to the historical streamflow annual series in order to detect trends or changes in the mean. The Studentt-test is also applied to study the relationship between interannual variability and the magnitude of change and length of data required to identify a statistically significant trend.

It follows from the statistical analysis of the currently available historical river data set that there is no clear evidence of trend or change in the mean streamflow of South American rivers resulting from a climate change, even though significant trends towards drier conditions have been found for rivers in the Northwest coast of Peru and in eastern Brazil. Interannual variations characterized the hydrology of tropical South America, in association with the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation. The change required to identify a statistically significant variation in the mean is directly proportional to the interannual variability. The effects of Amazon deforestation are not noticeable on the 1903-92 interannual variability of the Rio Negro series at Manaus nor in rainfall time series.

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  1. Centro de Previsão de Tempo é Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaçiais (INPE), Rod. Presidente Dutra Km. 40, 12630-000, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil

    José A. Marengo

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Marengo, J.A. Variations and change in south American streamflow. Climatic Change 31, 99–117 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01092983

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