The rise of solar Cycle number 22

Abstract

The new solar cycle, denoted Cycle 22, has risen faster than of any of the previous 21 cycles, indicating that the cycle is likely to be of large amplitude. Moreover, the rapid rise suggests that the cycle could be arriving early, perhaps similar to the phase advance which occurred during Cycles 1–4. The rapid early rise of Cycle 22 also suggests that there might be a connection with the period of extraordinarily low geomagnetic activity centred on 1980. If this is the case, then the suppression of geomagnetic activity is the first sign of a new cycle, in this case approximately 7 years prior to the ‘official’ start of the cycle. This idea is consistent with recent ideas on the solar cycle and has significant implications for geomagnetic disturbance forecasting.