Exploring the Determinants of Urban Resilience Against Pandemics: Case of Four Large Indian Cities

Abstract

Cities are the epicenters of people and economic activities but with Covid-19 affecting both lives and livelihood, all economic activities have been brought to a grinding halt. It is important therefore for cities to understand the factors which build urban resilience to be in a better state of preparedness. The study aims to study some of the determinants of urban resilience against Covid-19 in the context of 4 large Indian cities across the first wave and second wave of the pandemic, in 2020 and 2021 i.e. Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune and Surat. The explanatory variables for the infection which have been taken are the crowding variables (population, gross density, net density, street crowding and indoor crowding), Health resources variable (hospital beds and medical facilities), Socio-economic variables (poverty) and Environmental variables (Solid waste generated, Sewerage discharged, Water Supply and Open Spaces). The analysis is done at a granular level taking wards which is the smallest administrative unit of a city. The analysis is done using the multiple linear regression method and finding the coefficient of correlation between the dependent variable (infection rate) and independent variables under Crowding variables, Socio-Economic variables, Health Resources variables and Environmental variables. The test of an ideal urban development model, be it a compact city or a sprawling city, is its resilience to natural and manmade disasters. In a develo** nation like India, where resources are limited, it is imperative that resources are optimally used, both under normal and pandemic conditions. Crowding variables are seen to have a much stronger influence in prevention and control of the virus transmission than Socio-Economic, Health Resources or Environmental variables which justifies the stringent lockdown measures taken by the Indian government.