Robust Real-Time Updating of Real-Time Flood Forecasting System Based on Kalman Filter

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Proceedings of 2022 4th International Conference on Environment Sciences and Renewable Energy (ESRE 2022)

Part of the book series: Environmental Science and Engineering ((ESE))

Included in the following conference series:

  • 131 Accesses

Abstract

The updating scheme with high precision and strong robustness is one of the most important factors affecting the real-time flood forecasting system. The standard Kalman filter algorithm is often used to real-time updating, because of its timeliness and strong tracking. However, it is sensitive to outliers, a small number of outliers can cause seriously collapse. In order to withstand the destruction of outliers on updating process, a robust Kalman filter method is put forward. The robust weight function is introduced to adjust the weight of the measured data recursively. By compressing the weight of the suspicious observations and resulting in a decreased filter gain, the harmful influence of the abnormal observations on the determination of the state variables can be resisted effectively and the robustness of the updating can be achieved. The performances of the proposed method have been compared with the standard Kalman filter by both data with and without outliers. The robust method shows the robust results and the filters the impact of the abnormal observations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 149.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Hardcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free ship** worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Bogner K, Pappenberger F (2011) Multiscale error analysis, correction, and predictive uncertainty estimation in a flood forecasting system. Water Resour Res 47:1–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brown RG, Hwang PYC (1992) Introduction to random signals and applied Kalman filter: with MATLAB exercises and solutions, 2nd edn. Wiely, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Butts MB, Payne JT, Kristensen M, Madsen H (2004) An evaluation of the impact of model structure on hydrological modelling uncertainty for streamflow simulation. J Hydrol 298(1–4):242–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gelb A (1974) Applied optimal estimation. MIT Press, Cambridge Mass.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goswani M, O’Connor KM, Bhattarai KP, Shamsedlin AY (2005) Assessing the performance of eight real-time updating models and procedures for the Brosna River. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 9(4):394–411

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han JW, Kamber M (2011) Data mining: concepts and techniques, 3rd edn. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Hino M (1970) Runoff forecasts by linear predictive filter. J Hydraul Div 963:681–702

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khu ST, Liong SY, Babovic V, Madsen H, Muttil N (2001) Genetic programming and its application in real-time runoff forecasting. J Am Water Resour Assoc 37(2):439–451

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kitagawa G (1987) Non-Gaussian state-space modeling of nonstationary time series. Am Stat Assoc 82(400):1032–1041

    Google Scholar 

  • Li Q, Bao WM, Qian JL (2015) An error updating system for real-time flood forecasting based on robust procedure. KSCE J Civ Eng 19(3):796–803

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y, Gupta HV (2007) Uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: toward an integrated data assimilation framework. Water Resour Res 43:1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y et al (2012) Advancing data assimilation in operational hydrologic forecasting: progress, challenges, and emerging opportunites. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16(10):3863–3887

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madsen H, Skotner C (2005) Adaptive state updating in real-time river flow forecasting—a combined filtering and error forecasting procedure. J Hydrol 308(1):302–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morris JM (1976) The Kalman filter: a robust estimator for some classes of linear quadratic problems. IEEE Trans Inf Theory 22:526–534

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Refsgaard JC (1997) Validation and intercomparison of different updating procedures for real-time forecasting. Nordic Hydrol 28(2):65–84

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Todling R, Cohn S (1994) Suboptimal schemes for atmospheric data assimilation based on the Kalman filter. Mon Weather Rev 122:2530–2557

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) (1992) Simulated real-time intercomparison of hydrological models. Operational hydrology Rep. 1992, 38, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Wu XL, Wang CH, Chen X, **ang XH (2008) Kalman filtering correction in real-time forecasting with hydrodynamic model. J Hydrodyn 20(3):391–397

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu PS, Chen ST (2005) Updating real-time flood forecasting using a fuzzy rule-based model. Hydrol Sci J 50(2):265–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao C, Hong HS, Bao WM, Zhang LP (2008) Robust recursive estimation of auto-regressive updating model parameters for real-time flood forecasting. J Hydrol 349(5):376–382

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao C, Yang JY (2019) A robust skewed boxplot for detecting outliers in rainfall observations in real-time flood forecasting. Adv Meteorol 1795673

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

we would like to express sincere thanks to the editor and the anonymous reviewers whose comments led to great improvement of this paper.

Funding

This study is funded by Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (2022J011232) and Scientific Research Climbing Plan of **amen University of Technology (XPDKT19028) and Science and technology project of **amen (3502Z20203063) and Innovation and start-up project of **amen University of Technology (YKJCX2021148).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Zhao Chao .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Zhiqiang, H., like, L., Kaiqi, S., Chao, Z. (2023). Robust Real-Time Updating of Real-Time Flood Forecasting System Based on Kalman Filter. In: Baeyens, J., Dewil, R., Rossi, B., Deng, Y. (eds) Proceedings of 2022 4th International Conference on Environment Sciences and Renewable Energy. ESRE 2022. Environmental Science and Engineering. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9440-1_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Navigation