Review and Medium- and Long-Term Prospect of Global Oil Demand

Abstract

In 2020, a sudden COVID-19 swept across the world and intensified. Major countries introduced strict control measures to control the pandemic, which led to a serious recession in economy and a dramatic decline in oil demand. In April, the global oil demand shrank by 23 mmbd, and the annual oil demand shrank by more than 8.6 mmbd, which was the most serious decline in history. Looking to the future, with the arrival of the turning point of the pandemic since 2021, the vaccination of COVID-19 in various countries around the world has accelerated, economic activities have shown a steady recovery, and the global oil demand is expected to show a recovery growth. It is estimated that the global oil demand will increase by nearly 6 mmbd in 2021, but it is still difficult to recover to the pre-pandemic level. In the medium and long term, the COVID-19 may further accelerate the global energy transformation. In particular, major countries, such as China, Europe and the US, attach great importance to carbon emission reduction. It is expected that the traditional energy consumption, such as oil consumption, will gradually peak, and the demand for gasoline and diesel will face greater challenges in the medium and long term.