Abstract
In recent years, flooding hazard is usually assessed through numerical modelling. However, depending on the nature (e.g. 1D, 2D) and the breach characteristics (e.g. river geometry, bottom roughness, levees geometry) of the numerical model, the uncertainties on the corresponding parameters should be taken into account in a rigorous way, for improving the assessment of the simulated flooding hazard. In fact, levee behaviour during a flooding event is one of the major sources of uncertainties impacting the water level at a given location.
In this context, the objective of our work is to better understand the impact of uncertain parameters related to levee breaches, on the generated overflows, through Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) of these parameters.
With this purpose, two numerical models of the Garonne River were built and validated, between Tonneins and La Réole sections (for a river length of nearly 50 km): a 1D hydraulic model with storage areas, developed with HEC-RAS and a 2D model with TELEMAC-2D. These modelling approaches (1D and 2D) are classically used to carry inundation studies. Moreover, the simulated river reach is of interest as protected by a levee system to reduce the flood risk. These levees have been damaged during flood periods, by physical mechanisms as erosion due to overtop** for instance, such as during the 1981 historical flood event. The study evaluates the influence of levee breach parameters (breach triggering parameter, breach length and breach depth) on the maximum water level at four points located within the upper part of the study area, through UQ and GSA. These approaches are carried out with a meta-model built with 200 simulations runs using a Monte-Carlo approach for both models. In both cases, the breach parameters are uniformly distributed and randomly sampled in order to generate a large number of breach scenarios.
Globally, the Monte-Carlo and FAST (Fourier Analysis Sensitivity Test) analyses performed have shown some differences between the results coming from both meta-models and between the upstream and the downstream storage areas, more sensitive to levee breaches. These analyses also indicated the slight effect of the breach length parameter contrary to the triggering and depth breach parameters.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Sanyal J (2017) Uncertainty in levee heights and its effect on the spatial pattern of flood hazard in a floodplain. Hydrol Sci J 62(9):1483–1498
Vorogushyn S, et al (2010) A new methodology for flood hazard assessment considering dike breaches. Water Res Res 46
Domeneghetti A et al (2013) Probabilistic flood hazard map**: effects of uncertain boundary conditions. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17(8):3127–3140
Wahl TL (2004) Uncertainty of predictions of embankment dam breach parameters. J Hydraul Eng 130(5):389–397
Bacchi V et al (2018) Feedback from uncertainties propagation research projects conducted in different hydraulic fields: outcomes for engineering projects and nuclear safety assessment. In: Advances in hydroinformatics 2018. Springer, pp 221–241
Faivre R et al (2013) Analyse de sensibilité et exploration de modèles: application aux sciences de la nature et de l’environnement. Editions Quae
Iooss B (2011) Revue sur l’analyse de sensibilité globale de modèles numériques. Journal de la Société Française de Statistique 152(1):3–25
Saltelli A et al (2008) Global sensitivity analysis: the primer. Wiley
Korswagen P, Jonkman S, Terwel K (2019) Probabilistic assessment of structural damage from coupled multi-hazards. Struct Saf 76:135–148
Apel H, Merz B, Thieken AH (2008) Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 6(2):149–162
Bacchi V, Pheulpin L, Bertrand N (2018) Assessing flow hazard throw sensitivity analysis of river breaches: application to the Garonne River
Bertrand N et al (2018) Uncertainties of a 1D hydraulic model with levee breaches: the benchmark garonne. In: Advances in hydroinformatics. Springer, pp 189–204
Pheulpin L, Bacchi V, Bertrand N (2019) Analyse de sensibilité des paramètres de rupture des digues: application au cas de la Garonne. Digues Maritimes et Fluviales de Protection contre les Inondations
Besnard A, Goutal N (2011) Comparison between 1D and 2D models for hydraulic modeling of a floodplain: case of Garonne River. La Houille Blanche 3:42–47
Nguyen T et al (2015) Propagation des incertitudes dans les modeles hydrauliques 1D. La Houille Blanche 5:55–62
Abily M et al (2016) Spatial global sensitivity analysis of high resolution classified topographic data use in 2D urban flood modelling. Environ Model Softw 77:183–195
Abily M et al (2015) Global sensitivity analysis with 2D hydraulic codes: applied protocol and practical tool. La Houille Blanche 5:16–22
Metropolis N, Ulam S (1949) The monte carlo method. J Am Stat Assoc 44(247):335–341
Jansen MJ, Rossing WA, Daamen RA (1994) Monte Carlo estimation of uncertainty contributions from several independent multivariate sources. In: Predictability and nonlinear modelling in natural sciences and economics. Springer, pp 334–343
Sarri A, Guillas S, Dias F (2012) Statistical emulation of a tsunami model for sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. ar**v preprint ar**v:1203.6297
Sraj I et al (2014) Uncertainty quantification and inference of Manning’s friction coefficients using DART buoy data during the Tōhoku tsunami. Ocean Model 83:82–97
Rohmer J et al (2018) Source characterisation by mixing long-running tsunami wave numerical simulations and historical observations within a metamodel-aided ABC setting. Stoch Env Res Risk Assess 32(4):967–984
Rohmer J et al (2018) Casting light on forcing and breaching scenarios that lead to marine inundation: combining numerical simulations with a random-forest classification approach. Environ Model Softw 104:64–80
Bacchi V et al (2018) Beyond a sensitivity study of levee-breach geometry using an inversion algorithm: application to a simplified river case. In: CMWR 2018: computational methods in water resources XXII, Saint-Malo, France, 4–7 June 2018
Fang K-T, Li R, Sudjianto A (2005) Design and modeling for computer experiments. Chapman and Hall/CRC
Gratiet LL, Marelli S, Sudret B (2016) Metamodel-based sensitivity analysis: polynomial chaos expansions and Gaussian processes. In: Handbook of uncertainty quantification, pp 1–37
Sacks J et al (1989) Design and analysis of computer experiments. Stat Sci, 409–423
Marrel A et al (2008) An efficient methodology for modeling complex computer codes with Gaussian processes. Comput Stat Data Anal 52(10):4731–4744
Saltelli A (2002) Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices. Comput Phys Commun 145(2):280–297
Iooss B et al (2010) Numerical studies of the metamodel fitting and validation processes. ar**v preprint ar**v:1001.1049
Kleijnen JP (2005) An overview of the design and analysis of simulation experiments for sensitivity analysis. Eur J Oper Res 164(2):287–300
Roustant O, Ginsbourger D, Deville Y (2012) DiceKriging, DiceOptim: Two R packages for the analysis of computer experiments by kriging-based metamodeling and optimization (2012)
Friedman J, Hastie T, Tibshirani R (2001) The elements of statistical learning. Springer series in statistics, vol 1, New York
Dupuy D, Helbert C, Franco J (2015) DiceDesign and DiceEval: two R packages for design and analysis of computer experiments. J Stat Softw 65(11):1–38
Acknowledgements
This work could not have been carried out without the organisation of the “Benchmark Garonne” project by EDF. The authors would like to thank especially Nicole Goutal and Cedric Goeury for data provided and rewarding technical exchanges during this project. Finally, the authors would like to thank Maxime Liquet who built the HEC-RAS model and the precious coupled tool Promethee-HEC-RAS.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Pheulpin, L., Bacchi, V., Bertrand, N. (2020). Comparison Between Two Hydraulic Models (1D and 2D) of the Garonne River: Application to Uncertainty Propagations and Sensitivity Analyses of Levee Breach Parameters. In: Gourbesville, P., Caignaert, G. (eds) Advances in Hydroinformatics. Springer Water. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5436-0_75
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5436-0_75
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-15-5435-3
Online ISBN: 978-981-15-5436-0
eBook Packages: Mathematics and StatisticsMathematics and Statistics (R0)