Bayesian Probability

Abstract

Of all the methods for handling uncertainty which are discussed in this book, probability theory has by far the longest tradition and is the best understood. For this reason it may be considered in the nature of a ‘gold standard’, for representing some aspects of uncertainty, against which more recent approaches may be measured. That is not to say that we subscribe to the view that probability theory is really all you need. Rather, that by giving a thorough description of its strengths and weaknesses we can provide a reference point for the discussion of some of the alternative formalisms.

When I say ‘S is probably P’, I commit myself guardedly, tentatively or with reservations to the view that S is P, and (likewise guardedly) lend my authority to that view. (Toulmin, 1958).