Abstract
This paper describes a framework for multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) for flood risk management. To date, most models assessing flood impacts and co** strategies focus on economic impacts and neglect environmental and social considerations. In this paper, we develop and test an ex-ante framework for flood damage assessment, which includes a flood simulation model, a decision tool, and suggested policy strategies. Environmental and social criteria are introduced into the framework, and soft evaluations are performed in order to demonstrate the usability of the framework. The Bac Hung Hai polder in northern Vietnam serves as a case study. Results show that it is useful to add a multi-criteria perspective to flood management decisions to account for differing views and preferences. Furthermore, such a framework enables stakeholder participation in consequence analyses as well as in formulating more elaborated criteria weights.
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Notes
- 1.
A flood event is calculated as the probability of a failure of the flood protection measures (using the probabilities for each type of event and for each location) conditional on a 100-year flood occurring. That is, the events of levee breach and overtop** may only occur if a 100-year flood event has struck at a specific location.
- 2.
Sometimes, these estimates are difficult to provide. Bana e Costa and Soares de Oliveira (2004) suggest a method that can be applied to such estimates, the MACBETH method (Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical Based Evaluation Technique).
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Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the Swedish international development cooperation agency (Sida). Many thanks to Dr. Lars Asker for discussions regarding Matlab methods.
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Hansson, K., Danielson, M., Ekenberg, L., Buurman, J. (2013). Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Flood Risk Management. In: Amendola, A., Ermolieva, T., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R. (eds) Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 32. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2226-2_4
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