A Fuzzy Inference System for the Economic Calculus in Radioactive Waste Management

Abstract

This chapter illustrates a fuzzy inference system (FIS) developed to assist the economic calculus in radioactive waste management (RWM). The extended time horizons and, in addition, the first-of-a-kind nature of many RWM systems induce large cost uncertainties in project funding. The traditional approach in economic calculus is to include contingency factors in basic cost estimates. A distinction is made between T-factors, used for technological uncertainties, and P-factors, used for project contingencies. In the particular case of nuclear projects, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has developed specific recommendations for defining both contingency factors. The approach is based on the statistical interpretation of past experience data in the field. As a generalisation of the EPRI results, a new methodology using fuzzy inference rules is proposed. The inputs to the FIS are derived from the answers of experts regarding both the degrees of technological maturity and project advancement. Inferred T- and P-factors proposed by the FIS are given either as single estimates as possibility intervals. The latter are shown to possess all suitable dynamic properties for cost estimates in RWM projects, compatible with the EPRI recommendations.