Abstract
Identifying the parts of subduction zones that are susceptible to great earthquakes is a challenge that warrants considerable attention. In south-central Chile, where the 1960 M w 9.5 Valdivia earthquake occurred, we have combined surface geology and gravity data into a three-dimensional density model that helps to identify trench-parallel changes in fore-arc properties between 36 and 42° S. In light of suggestions that gravity data predict the seismogenic behavior of subduction zones, we use the gravity data and geological observations to separate the fore-arc in this region into three segments.
The northern Arauco-Lonquimay segment, where gravity anomalies are strongly positive, should be characterized by low coupling. In contrast, the plate interface under the Valdivia-Liquiñe and Bahia Mansa-Osorno segments to the south, where anomalies are negative or near-zero, should be highly coupled. The inferred differences in coupling are consistent with the extent of rupture during the Valdivia earthquake, which initiated under the southern part of the Arauco-Lonquimay segment but propagated southwards through the zone of inferred high coupling under the Valdivia-Liquiñe and Bahia Mansa-Osorno segments.
A three-dimensional gravity model of this region, constrained by surface geology and, in part, by independent seismic information, shows that one major control on the changing gravity-anomaly characteristics is the depth to the slab below the fore-arc. The model suggests that a north-to-south increase in the depth to the slab of about 5 km is possible. This increasing depth to the slab (i.e. increasing fore-arc thickness) can account for the inferred increase in coupling under the southern segments. A deeper slab would lead to greater shear stress and an increased coupling force at the plate interface. This increase is a result of: (1) greater normal stress acting on the plate interface induced by a thicker fore-arc, (2) slab buoyancy effects related to plate age (which also decreases from north to south), and (3) a shallower onset of sediment consolidation that increases the rigidity of material at the plate interface, thereby increasing the width of the frictionally coupled (unstably sliding) part of the subduction interface. Differences in fore-arc rheology, reflected in along-strike compositional differences and seismicity patterns, also have an important influence on coupling.
Other parameters that are often invoked to explain coupling differences (e.g. changes in trench sediment, convergence rate and seafloor texture) cannot explain differences in coupling here because these parameters do not change over the length of the trench examined, or they cause an effect that is contrary to the inferences based on gravity anomalies. The inferred coupling differences are also consistent with observed seismicity. In the Arauco-Lonquimay segment, where we infer coupling to be low, prominent seismicity is evident, indicating that the fore-arc is releasing the strain built up during convergence. In the Valdivia-Liquiñe and Bahia Mansa-Osorno segments, where we infer coupling to be high, fore-arc seismicity is limited. This suggests that strain is accumulating as the result of a locked plate interface, although aseismic slip cannot be ruled out.
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Hackney, R.I. et al. (2006). The Segmented Overriding Plate and Coupling at the South-Central Chilean Margin (36–42°S). In: Oncken, O., et al. The Andes. Frontiers in Earth Sciences. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg . https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-48684-8_17
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