Abstract
How does partisan polarization in the United States affect foreign perceptions of its security commitments and global leadership? In a survey experiment fielded to 2000 adults in the United Kingdom, I demonstrate that priming respondents to think about US polarization negatively impacts their evaluations of the US-UK bilateral relationship. These impacts are stronger for the long-term, reputational consequences of polarization than for immediate security concerns. While foreign allies do not expect the United States to renege on existing security commitments, perceptions of extreme polarization make them less willing to engage in future partnerships with the United States and more skeptical of its global leadership. I find that these negative reputational consequences of polarization are driven by perceptions of preference-based, ideological polarization rather than identity-based, affective polarization. The results suggest that American allies anticipate that increasing divergence between the Republican and Democratic Party will create future uncertainty around US foreign policy.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Aronow, P. M., Baron, J., & Pinson, L. (2019). A Note on Drop** Experimental Subjects Who Fail a Manipulation Check. Political Analysis, 27(4), 572–589.
Asmus, R. D. (2003). Rebuilding the Atlantic Alliances. Foreign Affairs, 82(5), 20–31.
Atwood, K., & N. Gaouette. (2020, October 31). How Biden Plans to Undo Trump’s “America First” Foreign Policy and Return US to World Stage. CNN.
BBC World Service. (2018, September 28). Live from Washington: Kavanaugh Vote Due. BBC News.
Bond, J. R., & Fleisher, R. (2000). Polarized Politics: Congress and the President in a Partisan Era. CQ Press.
Boxell, L., Matthew, G., & Shapiro, J. M. (2020). Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization. NBER working paper series.
Bradburn, N. M., Sudman, S., & Wansink, B. (2004). Asking Questions: The Definitive Guide to Questionnaire Design. Jossey-Bass.
Brands, H. (2016). American Grand Strategy and the Liberal Order: Continuity, Change, and Options for the Future. Rand Corporation.
Brands, H. (2017). The Unexceptional Superpower: American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump. Survival, 59(6), 7–40.
Brooks, S. G., & Wohlforth, W. C. (2016). America Abroad: The United States’ Global Role in the 21st Century. Oxford University Press.
Broz, J. L. (2002). Political System Transparency and Monetary Commitment Regimes. International Organization, 56(4), 861–887.
Chayes, A. (2008). How American Treaty Behavior Threatens National Security. International Security, 33(1), 45–81.
Coats, D. R. (2018). Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community. Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
Cooley, A., & Nexon, D. (2020). Exit from Hegemony: The Unraveling of the American Global Order. Oxford University Press.
Cowhey, P. F. (1993). Domestic Institutions and the Credibility of International Commitments: Japan and the United States. International Organization, 47(2), 299–326.
Diermeir, D., & Li, C. (2019). Partisan Affect and Elite Polarization. American Political Science Review, 113(1), 277–281.
Dinic, M. (2015, October 14). Who Do the British Regard as Allies? YouGov Daily.
Dueck, C. (2015). The Obama Doctrine: American Grand Strategy Today. Oxford University Press.
Edwards, G. C., & Barrett, A. (2000). Presidential Agenda Setting in Congress. In J. R. Bond & R. Fleisher (Eds.), Polarized Politics: Congress and the President in a Partisan Era. Congressional Quarterly Press.
Fordham, B. O., and Flynn, M. (2023). Everything Old Is New Again: The Persistence of Republican Opposition to Multilateralism in American Foreign Policy. Studies in American Political Development, 37(1), 56–73.
Friedersdorf, C. (2018, January 23). Trump and Russia Both Seek to Exacerbate the Same Political Divisions. The Atlantic.
Gaubatz, K. T. (1996). Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations. International Organization, 50(1), 109–139.
Gholz, E., & Press, D. (2010). Footprints in the Sand. American Interest, 5(4), 59–67.
Gidron, N., Adams, J., & Horne, W. (2020). American Affective Polarization in Comparative Perspective. Cambridge University Press.
Goldsmith, B. E., Horiuchi, Y., & Matush, K. (2021). Does public Diplomacy Sway Foreign Public Opinion? Identifying the Effect of High-Level Visits. American Political Science Review, 115(4), 1342–1357.
Hobolt, S. B., Leeper, T. J., & Tilley, J. (2021). Divided by the Vote: Affective Polarization in the Wake of the Brexit Referendum. British Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 1476–1493.
Holsti, O. R. (2004). Public Opinion and Foreign Policy (revised ed.). University of Michigan Press.
Ignatieff, M. (Ed.). (2005). American Exceptionalism and Human Rights. Princeton University Press.
Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). The End of Liberal International Order? International Affairs, 94(1), 7–23.
Iyengar, S., & Westwood, S. J. (2015). Fear and Loathing Across Party Lines: New Evidence on Group Polarization. American Journal of Political Science, 59(3), 690–707.
Iyengar, S., Sood, G., & Lelkes, Y. (2012). Affect, Not Ideology: A Social Identity Perspective on Polarization. Public Opinion Quarterly, 76(3), 405–431.
Iyengar, S., Lelkes, Y., Levendusky, M., Malhotra, N., & Westwood, S. J. (2019). The Origins and Consequences of Affective Polarization in the United States. Annual Review of Political Science, 22(7), 129–146.
Kertzer, J. D. (2021a). Public Opinion About Foreign Policy. In L. Huddy, D. Sears, J. Levy, & J. Jerit (Eds.), Oxford Handbook of Political Psychology (3rd ed.). Oxford University Press.
Kertzer, J. D. (2021b, September 2). American Credibility After Afghanistan: What the Withdrawal Really Means for Washington’s Reputation. Foreign Affairs.
Kertzer, J. D. (2022). Re-assessing Elite-Public Gaps in Political Behavior. American Journal of Political Science, 66(3), 539–553.
Kertzer, J. D., Powers, K. E., Rathbun, B. C., & Ravi, I. (2014). Moral Support: How Moral Values Shape Foreign Policy Attitudes. Journal of Politics, 63(3), 825–830.
Khong, Y. F. (2014). Primacy or World Order? The United States and China’s Rise. International Security, 38(3), 153–175.
Koremenos, B., Lipson, C., & Snidal, D. (2001). The Rational Design of International Institutions. International Organization, 55(4), 761–799.
Kupchan, C. A. (2020). Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World. Oxford University Press.
Kupchan, C. A., & Trubowitz, P. L. (2007). Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internationalism in the United States. International Security, 32(2), 7–44.
Kupchan, C. A., & Trubowitz, P. L. (2010). The Illusion of Liberal Internationalism’s Revival. International Security, 35(1), 95–109.
Lauderdale, B. E., & Herzog, A. (2016). Measuring Political Positions from Legislative Speech. Political Analysis, 24(3), 374–394.
Layne, C. (2009). America’s Middle East Strategy After Iraq: The Moment for Offshore Balancing Has Arrived. Review of International Studies, 35(1), 5–25.
Leeds, B. A., Mattes, M., & Vogel, J. S. (2009). Interests, Institutions, and the Reliability of International Commitments. American Journal of Political Science, 53(2), 461–476.
Lelkes, Y., Sood, G., & Iyengar, S. (2015). The Hostile Audience: The Effect of Access to Broadband Internet on Partisan Affect. American Journal of Political Science, 61(1), 5–20.
Liu, L. (2016, November 8). The Whole World Is Glued to the US Election. Business Insider.
Mansfield, E. D., Milner, H. V., & Peter Rosendorff, B. (2002). Why Democracies Cooperate More: Electoral Control and International Trade Agreements. International Organization, 56(3), 477–513.
Martin, L. L. (2000). Democratic Commitments: Legislatures and International Cooperation. Princeton University Press.
Mason, L. (2015). I Disrespectfully Agree: The Differential Effects of Partisan Sorting on Social and Issue Polarization. American Journal of Political Science, 59(1), 128–145.
Mason, L. (2018). Uncivil Agreement: How Politics Became Our Identity. University of Chicago Press.
Maxey, S. (2022). Finding the Water’s Edge: When Negative Partisanship Influences Foreign Policy Attitudes. International Politics, 59(5), 802–826.
Mattes, M., Leeds, B. A., & Carroll, R. (2015). Leadership Turnover and Foreign Policy Change: Societal Interests, Domestic Institutions, and Voting in the United Nations. International Studies Quarterly, 59(2), 280–290.
McGillivray, F., & Smith, A. (2008). Punishing the Prince: A Theory of Interstate Relations, Political Institutions, and Leader Change. Princeton University Press.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (1990). Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War. International Security, 15(1), 5–56.
Musgrave, P. (2019). International Hegemony Meets Domestic Politics: Why Liberals Can Be Pessimists. Security Studies, 28(3), 451–478.
Myrick, R. (2018). Towards the Extremes: The Impact of Partisan Polarization on International Cooperation. Presented at the 2018 Peace Science Society Annual Meeting.
Myrick, R. (2021). Do External Threats Unite or Divide? Security Crises, Rivalries, and Polarization in American Foreign Policy. International Organization, 4(75), 921–958.
Myrick, R., & Wang, C. (2024). Domestic Polarization and International Rivalry: How Adversaries Respond to America’s Partisan Politics. The Journal of Politics, 86 (1), 141–157.
Nye, J. (2004). Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics. PublicAffairs.
Nye, J. S. (2012). The Future of American Power: Dominance and Decline in Perspective. In J. M. McCormick (Ed.), The Domestic Sources of American Foreign Policy: Insights and Evidence (6th ed.). Rowman and Littlefield.
Obama, B. (2002). Remarks by Barack Obama in Chicago on October 2, 2002. Transcript accessed from NPR.
Peake, J. S. (2017). The Domestic Politics of US Treaty Ratification: Bilateral Treaties from 1949 to 2012. Foreign Policy Analysis, 13(4), 832–853.
Peake, J. S. (2023). Dysfunctional Diplomacy: The Politics of International Agreements in an Era of Partisan Polarization. Routledge.
Peña, C. V. (2006). A Smaller Military to Fight the War on Terror. Orbis, 50(2), 289–306.
Pew Research Center. (2018). An Examination of the 2016 Electorate, Based on Validated Voters.
Pialik, K. (2017, August 22). US Active-Duty Military Presence Overseas is at Its Smallest in Decades. Pew Research Center.
Poole, K. T., & Rosenthal, H. (1997). Congress: A Political-Economic History of Roll Call Voting. Oxford University Press.
Posen, B. R. (2007). The Case for Restraint. American Interest, 3(1), 7–17.
Preble, C. A. (2009). Power Problem: How American Military Dominance Makes Us Less Safe, Less Prosperous, and Less Free. Cornell University Press.
Rapp-Hooper, M. (2020, February 10). Saving America’s Alliances: The United States Still Needs the System That Put It on top. Foreign Affairs.
Reuters Staff. (2020, June 6). Protests Worldwide Embrace Black Lives Matter Movement. Reuters.
Reynolds, D. (1985). A ‘Special Relationship’? America, Britain, and the International Order Since the Second World War. International Affairs, 62(1), 1–20.
Rogowski, J. C., & Sutherland, J. L. (2016). How Ideology Fuels Affective Polarization. Political Behavior, 38, 485–508.
Schemm, P., Cunningham, E., O’Grady, S., & Taylor, A. (2021, January 7). US Allies React in Horror to Capitol Assault, Hold Trump Responsible. The Washington Post.
Schultz, K. A. (2017). Perils of Polarization for US Foreign Policy. The Washington Quarterly, 40(4), 7–28.
Schwartz, M. S. (2020, September 30). Is This American-Style Civilization? World Reacts to Presidential Debate. NPR.
Sherman, W. (2018, August 9). How We Got the Iran Deal and Why We’ll Miss It. Foreign Affairs.
Snyder, J. (1991). Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition. Cornell University Press.
Sokolsky, R., & Miller, A. D. (2019, January 20). Trump Is Achieving His Goal of Being the Un-Obama, Except on Middle East wars. USA Today.
Tomz, M., & Weeks, J. L. P. (2020). Public Opinion and Foreign Electoral Intervention. American Political Science Review, 114(3), 856–873.
Tomz, M., Weeks, J. L. P., & Yarhi-Milo, K. (2020). Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies. International Organization, 74, 119–143.
Wallcott, J. (2020, June 17). Unquiet on the Western Front: Why the 74-Year Alliance Between Europe and America is Falling Apart. Time.
Walt, S. (2019, January 29). America Has a Commitment Problem. Foreign Policy.
Webster, S. W., & Abramowitz, A. I. (2017). The Ideological Foundations of Affective Polarization in the US Electorate. American Politics Research, 45(4), 621–647.
Westwood, S. J., Peterson, E., & Lelkes, Y. (2019). Are There Still Limits on Partisan Prejudice? Public Opinion Quarterly, 83(3), 584–597.
Wike, R., Fetterfolf, J., & Mordecai, M.. (2020, September 15). US Image Plummets Internationally as Most Say Country Has Handled Coronavirus Badly. Pew Research Center.
Wittkopf, E. R. (1990). Faces of Internationalism: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. Duke University Press.
Yarhi-Milo, K. (2018, December 12). After Credibility: American Foreign Policy in the Trump Era. Foreign Affairs.
YouGov Staff. (2017, February 2). America’s Friends and Enemies. YouGov.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2024 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Myrick, R. (2024). The Reputational Consequences of Polarization for American Foreign Policy: Evidence from the US-UK Bilateral Relationship. In: Friedrichs, G.M., Tama, J. (eds) Polarization and US Foreign Policy. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-58618-7_13
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-58618-7_13
Published:
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-58617-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-58618-7
eBook Packages: Political Science and International StudiesPolitical Science and International Studies (R0)