Seasonal and Long-Term Variability of Ice Conditions in the Western Arctic

Abstract

Currently, various projects are implemented in the Russian Arctic sector, a large number of new projects are planned, and offshore developments are underway. The Northern Sea Route passes in the Arctic sector. To ensure safety and more efficient use of natural resources, one should study the climatic conditions of this region since they play an important role in the economic component and ensure environmental safety. For the analysis of climatic conditions, mathematical statistics and remote sensing methods play the most important role. The assessment of the variability of hydrometeorological characteristics and the possibility of their prediction is an integral part of the effective socio-economic use of the Arctic. The paper presents studies for the seas of the eastern sector of the Arctic: the Pechora, Barents, and Kara seas. The paper aims to study the long-term variability of the sea ice area of the seas of the Western Arctic using the methods of mathematical statistics: (1) trend research, (2) correlation of sea ice coverage, and (3) the method of auto-forecasting the ice extent of each sea with the calculated optimal lead time. As a result, we calculated the nonlinear trends characterizing the negative trend of the ice area for all seas. We also identified a significant message from the Barents and Kara Seas, for the Kara and Pechora Seas. We compiled auto-forecast models with a lead time of 1 year, for the Barents Sea with a lead time of 13 years. We can see a possibility of a touristic sea ice extent in these seas.