Projection of the Climate Change Impacts on Electricity Production Derived from Renewable Sources

Abstract

The potential impact of climate change on the energy sector has prompted the engineering community to take a closer look. In view of this, it is inevitable to assume that the world faces the great challenge of investing in new alternative energy sources and trying to predict the next cycles in their production processes. The present work approaches this issue in order to project the production of this type of energy, using a standard emissions scenario and different time horizons. Based on the energy matrix and the energy supply in Portugal and on the climate projections, the work aims to verify the potential of energy production from renewable sources in future scenarios. The methods used were based on the analysis of hydro, wind and solar production cycles between the years 2008 and 2020. The comparison of these cycles with the climate data of the same period allows to obtain statistical projection models for the periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 for the emission scenario RCP8.5. At this stage, only the relationships between projections of future climate and water production are presented. The results indicate a reduction in hydropower production by 2100, which could be up to 12%.