Abstract
Small-state agency is still possible amid the growing great power rivalry. This chapter focuses on how and why the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states exercise their agency under conditions of uncertainty. Over the past decade, the United States (US) and China have stepped up their competition on both military (security, territorially) and non-military chessboards (economic, diplomatic, and functional) (Kuik 2021a). The emerging international insecurity after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 has deepened the uncertainties faced by smaller states. As the competing powers step up their rivalry across the twin chessboards, ASEAN states have actively tried to mitigate the risks associated with great power competition. These actions are best understood as “hedging”—insurance-maximizing behaviour under high-uncertainty and high-stake conditions—in which a country or a group of countries pursues active impartiality, inclusive diversification, and prudent contradictions aimed at cultivating fall-back positions and kee** options open (Khong 2004; Kuik 2016, 2022a). This behaviour will not only persist but also intensify if systemic circumstances, particularly the relative distribution of the big powers’ strengths and relations, are increasingly uncertain. Like smaller states elsewhere, ASEAN states do not hedge against any single power but against a range of risks. The multiple risks ASEAN states seek to mitigate and offset are China’s increased assertiveness, the US’s reduced commitments, and the dangers of big-power entrapment, regional polarization, and ASEAN marginalization.
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Notes
- 1.
ASEAN was originally formed by five non-communist countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand) in August 1967 at the height of the Cold War. In 1984, Brunei, after obtaining its independence, joined ASEAN. The ASEAN-Six was later enlarged to ASEAN-Ten, when Vietnam joined in 1995, Laos and Myanmar in 1997, and Cambodia in 1999.
- 2.
This section is drawn from Kuik (2022c).
- 3.
Myanmar’s vote was cast by the envoy representing the National Unity Government (NUG) in exile, as opposed to the Junta.
- 4.
The idea of ADMM can be traced back to the Bali Concord II framework, adopted in October 2003, which comprises three pillars, that is, the ASEAN Political-Security Community, ASEAN Economic Community, and ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community. The following year, the ASEAN Security Community Plan of Action was adopted by the 10th ASEAN Summit, which laid the foundation for the establishment of an annual ADMM. See Chalermpalanupap (2011); Teo and Singh (2016).
- 5.
Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam.
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Kamaruddin, N., Kuik, CC. (2023). ASEAN’s Agency in the US-China Rivalry: Small-State Hedging Across the Twin Chessboards. In: Roberts, K., Bano, S. (eds) The Ascendancy of Regional Powers in Contemporary US-China Relations . Global Foreign Policy Studies. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-37612-2_7
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