Abstract
Consensus exists among U.S. government officials and defense policy experts with respect to modernization of the strategic nuclear triad of land and sea-based intercontinental missiles and long-range bombers, with one exception. Controversy continues with respect to modernization of the ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) force, and some experts favor elimination or extension of the existing ICBM force instead of its replacement and recapitalization. This study reviews the issue of ICBM modernization from the perspective of U.S. nuclear deterrence strategy and arms control, including the possibility of deploying some part of the strategic land-based missile force in mobile basing. We conclude that future U.S. nuclear modernization and related arms control objectives are not threatened by numbers of available or foreseeable weapons and launchers as much as they are by the advent of new technologies for offensive and defensive weapons.
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Notes
- 1.
Amy F. Woolf, U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Developments, and Issues (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, updated December 10, 2020), https://crsreports.congress.gov, RL 33640. Nuclear modernization will also include warhead and infrastructure modernization programs. See: John R. Harvey, NNSA’s Role in the Biden Nuclear Posture Review, National Institute for Public Policy, Information Series, Issue No. 510, December 6, 2021, National Institute Press, www.nipp.org
- 2.
Steven Pifer, “The Death of the INF Treaty Has Given Birth to New Missile Possibilities,” The National Interest, September 18, 2019, in Johnson’s Russia List 2019 - #153 – September 19, 2019, davidjohnson@starpower.net
- 3.
See: Statement of Charles A. Richard, Commander, United States Strategic Command, before the Senate Committee on Armed Services, 20 April 2021, https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Richard04.20.2021.pdf, and Vladimir Putin. Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly, March 1, 2018, in Johnson’s Russia List 2018 - #39 – March 1, 2018, davidjohnson@starpower.net, also http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957. See also: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence, In English, June 8, 2020, https://dfnc.ru/en/russia-news/fundamentals-of-russia-s-nuclear-deterrence-state-policy/.
- 4.
Richard, Statement before the Senate Committee on Armed Services, 20 April 2021.
- 5.
For example, see: Matthew Kroenig, Mark J. Massa, and Christian Triotti, The Downsides of Downsizing: Why the United States Needs Four Hundred ICBMs, Atlantic Council, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Issue Brief, April 2021, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/the-downsides-of-downsizing-why-the-united-states-needs-four-hundred-icbms/; and Matt Korda, Alternatives to the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent, Federation of American Scientists, February 2021, https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Alternatives-to-the-GBSD-Feb.-2021.pdf
- 6.
For example, see: Marissa Martin, Kaila Pfrang and Brian Weeden, Chinese Military and Intelligence Rendezvous and Proximity Operations, Secure World Foundation, April 2021, www.swfound.org
- 7.
Zachary Kallenborn and Philipp C. Bleek, “Drones of Mass Destruction: Drone Swarms and the Future of Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Weapons,” War on the Rocks, February 14, 2019, https://warontherocks.com/2019/02/drones-of-mass-destruction-drone-swarms-and-the-future-of-nuclear-chemical-and-biological-weapons/. See also: Zachary Kallenborn, “Meet the future weapon of mass destruction, the drone swarm,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, April 5, 2021, https://thebulletin.org/2021/04/meet-the-future-weapon-of-mass-destruction-the-drone-swarm
- 8.
Analysis is based on force structures in U.S. Congressional Budget Office (2017), pp. 33 and 44. Grateful acknowledgment is made to Dr. James J. Tritten for use of a model originally developed by him in this study. He has no responsibility for arguments or analysis here.
- 9.
In a 2021 conference attended by the author, a former U.S nuclear commander suggested that, if the American ICBM force were disbanded, twelve nuclear-armed cruise missiles would be sufficient to disable the remaining U.S. nuclear retaliatory force, in addition to much of the American nuclear infrastructure such as weapons laboratories.
- 10.
For expert commentary, see Sokolski (2021). See also: Brian G. Chow, “Two Ways to Ward Off Killer Spacecraft,” Defense One, July 30, 2019, https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/07/two-near-term-ways-ward-killer-spacecraft/158820/ and US Defense Intelligence Agency (2019).
- 11.
Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, Strategic and Space Systems (1980).
- 12.
Office of Technology Assessment (1981), NTIS Order # PB82–108077.
- 13.
Ivan Oelrich, “Deep thoughts: How moving ICBMs far underground will make the whole world safer,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, April 28, 2021, https://thebulletin.org/2021/04/deep-thoughts-how-moving-icbms-far-underground-will-make-the-whole-world-safer/
- 14.
For perspective, see: Sanger (2018). See also: Nina Kollars and Jacquelyn Schneider, “Defending Forward: The 2018 Cyber Strategy Is Here,” War on the Rocks, September 20, 2018, https://warontherocks.com/2018/09/defending-forward-the-2018-cyber-strategy-is-here/. Libicki (2009); Libicki (2017), pp. 49–65.
- 15.
- 16.
Dr. Zac Rogers, “In the Cognitive War – The Weapon is You!”, Mad Scientist Laboratory, July 1, 2019, https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/158-in-the-cognitive-war-the-weapon-is-you/. See also: Vincent Boulanin, “Regulating military AI will be difficult. Here’s a way forward,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 3, 2021, https://thebulletin.org/2021/03/regulating-military-ai-will-be-difficult-heres-a-way-forward/
- 17.
Aaron Mehta, “Trump’s new nuclear weapon has been deployed,” Defense News, February 4, 2020, https://www.defensenews.com/smr/nuclear-arsenal/2020/02/04/trumps-new-nuclear-weapon-has-been-deployed/
- 18.
Joe Gould, “Lawmakers aim to prevent sea-based nuclear cruise missile,” Defense News, March 4, 2021, https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2021/03/04/lawmakers-aim-to-prevent-sea-based-nuclear-cruise-missile/
- 19.
Joseph Trevithick, “The Army Has Finally Revealed The Range of Its New Hypersonic Weapon,” The War Zone, May 13, 2021, https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40584/the-army-has-finally-revealed-the-range-its-new-hypersonic-weapon
- 20.
Expert commentary on this point appears in: Cooper (2021).
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Cimbala, S.J. (2023). Modernizing the U.S. Strategic Land-Based Missile Force: Prudent Necessity or Deterrence Distraction?. In: Akande, A. (eds) Politics Between Nations. Contributions to International Relations. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-24896-2_25
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