Ruin Probability for Merged Risk Processes with Correlated Arrivals

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Stochastic Processes, Statistical Methods, and Engineering Mathematics (SPAS 2019)

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Abstract

In this paper the ruin probability of the sum of two classical risk processes is studied under the assumption that the claim size distributions are of phase type and that the two Poisson processes of claim arrivals are correlated. The correlation between two claim number processes is modeled by Common Shock Model. We represent the merged risk process as a classical compound Poisson risk process where the initial claim size distributions are replaced by a new, properly chosen phase type distribution. This allows to construct an exact formula for the ruin probability of the merged risk process.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Note that, besides Fig. 2.4, several other phase diagrams (and respective Markov chains) are possible, each generating the same distribution (2.14) but having different representation \((\boldsymbol{\alpha }, \textbf{T})\).

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Correspondence to Mohammad Jamsher Ali .

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Ali, M.J., Pärna, K. (2022). Ruin Probability for Merged Risk Processes with Correlated Arrivals. In: Malyarenko, A., Ni, Y., Rančić, M., Silvestrov, S. (eds) Stochastic Processes, Statistical Methods, and Engineering Mathematics . SPAS 2019. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics, vol 408. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-17820-7_2

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