Expected Climate-Induced Alterations in Sugarcane Yield and Its Agronomic Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

The present study tries to evaluate climate change impact and its vulnerability on one of the significant crops, sugarcane using the DSSAT crop simulation model. It was also an endeavor to understand the current status of major sugarcane production and agricultural practices in the study area and evolve a synergistic agronomic adaptation framework involving all stakeholders. A dynamical downscaling technique employing the RegCM, the regional climate model, was employed. The period of study was from 1971 to 2098 (128 years). This simulation output was used to predict the crop productivity changes in the Kancheepuram area using crop simulation model DSSAT v 4.7. The future yield projections showed a decline in yield for sugarcane. The likely yield changes for sugarcane were ascertained for the near, mid, and end centuries. The alterations in productivity for sugarcane were just −1.8, −2.6, and −2.8 percent for the near, mid, and end of the twenty-first century, respectively. The effect of CO₂ fertilization (+520 ppm) could be noticed till the mid-century, thereafter yield was shown to fall when that threshold level was reached. Agronomic adaptation was simulated using the model, adopting different sowing windows that are prevalent in the study area. According to the findings, sugarcane planted on March 15 can augment yield rates by 3.5% in the near-century under the RCP 4.5. Success and implementation of planned climate change adaptation lie in the hands of the stakeholders and can reduce the weather and climate risks to a great extent.