Abstract
This is Volume I of a two-volume set. It describes Trevor Swan’s life, and his contributions, together with major articles and papers, 1937-1950. While Swan counted among his friends, Nobel Laureates, James Meade and Bob Solow, and his world’s first quarterly macroeconomic model of the Great Depression came before that of Nobel Laureate Lawrence Klein’s, he could easily have shared their awards. In his famous “Swan Diagram”, beloved of students of macroeconomics world-wide, his four zones of economic unhappiness describe the problems of internal and external balance. He then proposed how economies grew based on capital deepening and technical progress, giving rise to the Solow-Swan model of economic growth. He advised every Australian prime minister from Sir Robert Menzies to Bob Hawke and Paul Keating and had a profound effect on the Australian economy.
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Notes
- 1.
The Canberra Times, 19 January 1989, p. 5.
- 2.
Information supplied by Clarice’s daughter, Lesley Booth. Lesley’s own grandson, Jordan, is a successful economist.
- 3.
Family information supplied by Lesley Booth.
- 4.
To provide an indication of how close-knit Trevor’s friends in Canberra were, mostly living close to the future Parliament House, when I was a schoolboy attending Canberra High near ANU, I would wait for the bus in the street a few blocks from Jack Crawford’s home. Frequently, he would stop to pick me up and drop me at school. My birthday present from Jack was Piero Sraffa’s edited volume of David Ricardo’s (1817), Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. This was Jack’s way of letting us know that he was not a protectionist despite being, at the time, Permanent Secretary to Sir John (“Black Jack”) McEwen’s (1900–1980) Department of Trade with strong protectionist leanings. Jack’s daughter, Victoria, was academically brilliant and became dux of Canberra High. Sadly, following graduation she went blind due to genetic issues and died at an exceedingly young age. Joe Gibson (husband the ANU philosopher, Quentin Gibson) who produced Repertory plays in the theatre where Parliament House now resides lived next door and Geoffrey Sawer (1910–1996), the ANU foundation law professor who played a role in the Chifley Government’s Bank Nationalisation case in the Privy Council appeal, lived nearby.
- 5.
The Daily Telegraph, 28/4/1941, reported: https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/248142412?searchTerm=frank%20grill The Daily Telegraph, Wednesday May 28th, 1941, p. 10, reported: May (Pat) Grill and Mr. Trevor Swan were married yesterday afternoon at St. Augustine's Church, Neutral Bay. Mr. Swan is now lecturer in Economics at the University, and his bride has been, since her graduation, a member of the Economics Department of the Bank of New South Wales. She is the younger daughter of the late Mr. Francis Grill and of Mrs. Grill of Neutral Bay, and was given away by her brother, Captain Frank Grill. She wore a dusty pink wool ensemble with a black halo hat, and black accessories, and carried a bouquet of gardenias. Miss Nancy Daley, the bridesmaid, was in a pale green wool frock, and wore navy blue accessories. Mr. Lawrence Swan attended the bridegroom, who is the son of Mr. and Mrs. P. W. Swan, of Marrickville.
- 6.
This peculiar way of thinking is based on the fallacy that there is somehow a fixed number of jobs so that if a qualified married female is given a job there is one less job available for a male breadwinner. Another motivation was to force married women who became mothers to stay home and raise the family.
- 7.
While Swan was elected President of the Economic Society from 25 August 1959 until 30 May 1961 shortly after he came back from India, he never played any active role in the Society other than to give a number of presidential addresses and was not present when he was elected.
- 8.
Swan received many better-paid job offers from the US and elsewhere which he simply ignored. For example, Leland B. Yeager, the Chair at the University of Virginia wrote to him on January 6, 1970, offering a position with a minimal teaching load for a salary in excess of US $30,000 p.a.
- 9.
In this respect, he was like his (and Bob Gregory’s) erstwhile student, Edward (Ted) Sieper, who, like Swan, had been awarded the rare University of Sydney Economics Medal. Trevor Swan thought highly of Sieper, describing him as “the young Mozart of Australian economics”. A fellow student, Adrian Pagan, recalls being struck by the beauty of Ted’s papers, and Peter Swan concurs, but Ted despised referee comments just as Mozart might have been critical of contemporary musicians who stood in his way. Some of Ted’s genius is revealed in Sieper and Swan (1973). In an unusual, if not unprecedented, move the exceedingly modest Sieper successfully petitioned the Vice Chancellor of ANU, forcing him to retract Sieper’s own promotion to Senior Lecturer. His retraction was somewhat quixotically designed to place pressure on the School to maintain academic standards and in this he succeeded. Ted exerted huge influence over the School. When the head of school decided to break up the first-year subject into a larger number of small classes without consultation, Ted called his own meeting, attracting a large attendance, which then proceeded to reverse the decision. Within days, the head of school had retired on health grounds. Exceptional modesty was a trait shared by Swan and Sieper, together with outstanding debating skills and shyness towards publishing. However, with respect to academic positions, Swan differed from Sieper. Swan initially applied for a readership at ANU when it was advertised but did not demure from the foundation chair when it was offered.
- 10.
As a personal aside, when I was studying economic history at ANU, John Dedman, a fellow student of advanced age, was completing his degree which he had commenced in the 1920s. Unusually for an undergraduate, John was awarded an Honorary Doctorate by ANU prior to graduation. He subsequently had a building named after him for his critical role in founding the ANU in his ministerial role in the wartime and post-war Labor governments. Trevor Swan had worked for him in Post-War Reconstruction. It seems that the advice that freshly minted graduates are given to succeed and honour their Alma Mater was not applicable to John who created the Alma Mater of thousands prior to his graduation.
- 11.
Rowse (2002, p. 157).
- 12.
A sympathetic commentator described Wilson, in 1947, as “a small (160cm or 5ft 3in), long-jawed, blue-eyed man with an easy manner and a strong streak of satirical, almost cynical humour”. See John Farquharson https://oa.anu.edu.au/obituary/wilson-sir-roland-1558.
- 13.
There was one aspect of the model Swan was unhappy with, namely the failure to distinguish between the rural and non-rural sectors of the economy, which he corrected in Swan (1945a). Swan also expresses his disappointment with the statistical crudity and less than satisfactory theory in his econometric model in his job application for a Readership at ANU in 1950.
- 14.
Personal communication, September 21, 2021. Waterman was a student over the period 1964–1967.
- 15.
Following the collapse of many banks in the US in 1930 and 1931, the private sector in the US tried to hoard gold but in 1933 when the US went off the Gold Standard, President Roosevelt nationalized stocks of gold and by raising the price to $35 per ounce greatly augmented Fort Knox reserves.
- 16.
This diagram did not become widely known until it appeared in the first edition of Samuelson’s Economics textbook in 1948, although it had appeared in Samuelson (1939).
- 17.
As Vines and Wills (2020) point out, diminishing returns were only properly integrated into the Keynesian model by Ando Modigliani in his PhD thesis, published in 1943. As they show, the three-part diagram required to depict Modigliani’s system is very unwieldy. As a result, the Keynesian system presented in textbooks normally abstracts from the effects of diminishing returns.
- 18.
This is surprising because although the wage cut caused the price of domestic output to fall, it did not cause the price of imports to fall, suggesting that the wage will have fallen relative to the overall cost of the consumption.
- 19.
Tony Thomas, in The Age, May 30, 1975, describes Wheeler’s remarkable career, beginning as a 15-year-old bank clerk in a bank branch. He became a protégé of Douglas Copland while at University of Melbourne prior to moving, first to The Treasury in Canberra and then to the ILO in Geneva before returning to Canberra in 1960 as chair of the Public Service Board and then Secretary of the Treasury.
- 20.
David Bensusan-Butt (1914–1994), the nephew of the French Impressionist Camille Pissarro, worked for Lord Keynes and indexed both The General Theory and Joan Robinson’s Accumulation of Capital. His wartime report on Bomber Command for Churchill reformed the bomber service after he revealed that 95% of all bombs dropped substantially missed their targets. He also acknowledged that systematic bombing of civilian targets such as Dresden actually raised, not lowered, the productivity of Hitler’s war effort. Bensusan-Butt spent 1949–50 in the Prime Minister’s Department in Canberra and later joined Heinz Arndt’s department at ANU in 1962 for 15 years. He was a delightful and extremely erudite man that Peter used to play chess with on a weekly basis while he was an ANU undergraduate.
- 21.
Heinz W. Arndt (1995). Nugget Coombs also played a role in this exchange, and it was with his urgings that Swan took up the post in London.
- 22.
“There is no need at this stage to define the ‘general price-level’ more precisely—for example, to specify whether it relates only to goods and services sold on the home market, or includes exports as well. Provided that it includes both home wage cost and external elements, and provided that real wages are measured in terms of the ‘general price-level’, however defined, the argument in this and the next few paragraphs will always hold good”.
- 23.
“It is not suggested that this is an ultimate statement of the determinants of real wages. Depending on what assumptions are made about the economic system as a whole, there may be various restrictions imposed on the manner in which the money wage-level can vary in relation to the external price-level - restrictions connected notably with the balance of payments and the terms of trade. The point relevant at present is merely that this ratio, as well as productivity is inevitably involved in any movement of real wages in an open economy”.
- 24.
ANU correspondence at the time paints the following picture: “in 1948 he was being eagerly sort by a leading economist in the European Economic Commission, who described him as ‘exceptionally able and brilliant’. Except for a short stint as a lecturer at the University of Sydney, most of his work to date had been in government departments. Coombs knew him well and supported him warmly; but Copland, who suspected he thought too highly of himself, remarked that he had not yet undertaken a sustained piece of work and thought he would benefit from a few years at a more junior level. Swan had initially applied for an advertised readership in economics [in his letter dated 23rd December 1949 which is included in Volume II]. However, as Hancock had shown, the market was not teeming with economists; so despite Copland’s doubt, he was offered the chair” (Foster and Varghese 1996, 54). Cornish (2007) describes the responses of Trevor’s referee’s: On the basis of Swan’s application, and eager to fill senior positions, Copland asked Wheare to investigate the merits of appointing Swan to the chair. Wheare contacted some of Swan’s referees, including Meade, Smithies and Gerhard Colm at the Council of Economic Advisers in Washington. Meade said that his “impression of Swan was very favourable. He seemed a very intelligent and capable economist, full of drive and ideas but at the same time very pleasant to have dealings with”. This accorded with his referee’s report, where Meade wrote that “Swan is an economist of real ability with a very considerable capacity for hard and sustained work and with considerable drive and initiative”. Smithies informed Wheare that Swan had spent a weekend with him in Harvard at the same time that Roy Harrod was visiting Boston. Swan had commented on one of Harrod’s public addresses. According to Smithies, “Swan really wiped the floor with him”; he had “the rare facility of combining a first-class theoretical mind with a capacity for absorbing and using facts”. Smithies thought Swan was “eminently qualified for any job that the National University can provide”. Colm likewise adjudged that Swan possessed “a fine analytical mind, and knows how to handle statistical and other tools…[he] has the scientific capacity which should be a pre-requisite for an appointment to a Chair of Economics”. Colin Clark, another referee, spoke about the “astonishing development of [Swan's] intellect and personality” since he first met him in 1937; he thought Swan would “bring real distinction to the Australian National University. Some of his work that I have seen should attract world attention”. Clark cited in particular, Swan's unpublished paper “A Working Model of the Australian Trade Cycle” which is the early version of the econometric model built by Swan which I discussed above.
- 25.
Popper rejected classical inductivist views and argued that a theory can never be proven but it can be falsified.
- 26.
Eccles shared the Nobel Prize in 1963.
- 27.
Florey had been awarded the Nobel Prize in 1945 as the co-discoverer of penicillin.
- 28.
I wish to thank Bob Gregory for drawing Martin’s biography to my attention.
- 29.
From these socialistically inclined beginnings, Heinz was to become far more “free market” and regret his support for nationalization fifty years later (Coleman, Cornish, and Drake 2007, 85).
- 30.
In a letter to Coombs dated December 29, 1944, Balogh delineated the British approach to creating full employment: “I am firmly convinced … that the problem of full employment can only be solved by creating a permanent inflationary situation and then controlling it”.
- 31.
These included Don T. Brash, E. S. Crawcour, Ron O. Hieser who became a drinking companion to Bob Hawke (see Holt, 2012), R. G. Hawkins, John S. Marsden who is a consultant with MarsdenJacob Associates, Ian A. McDougall (1934–2014) held a Monash chair in economics, 1969–1975, Adrian D. Pagan, a very well respected econometrician, John David Pitchford (1932–2021), Professor of Economics in the Faculties at ANU for many years, Alan J. Preston, Gary G. Pursell who had a career at the World Bank, Clem A. Tisdell who is now known as a well-cited ecological economist, the Rev. Anthony Waterman, and a number of others. Brash served as Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (1988–2002) and Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the New Zealand National Party from October 2003 to November 2006, and the Leader of ACT New Zealand from April to November 2011. Waterman commented on his relationship with Swan: “Because I was a Cambridge man, well-read in the Bloomsbury authors, and with wider literary and artistic tastes than most other people at the ANU, he liked taking with me about all kinds of things unconnected with economics. He was a great Anglophile and felt culturally (though not intellectually) isolated in Canberra”. Arndt and Cornish (2021) provide more information on Swan’s department.
- 32.
Freebairn recollects: “One of his contributions to all of his junior staff was to read drafts of our papers when typed by his secretary, Kathy Baird, then come unannounced to the office and discuss with us the paper. In addition to helpful questions and points for clarification, Trevor pointed out that authors prior to 1960, or thereabouts, had made contributions to our current research topic and we should review our bibliography”.
- 33.
The search for the holder of the first chair in economics at ANU that Trevor held was led by Professor W. K. (later Sir Keith) Hancock, Fellow of All Souls, and Chichele Professor of Economic History at Oxford. As Cornish (2012) drolly notes, given the value that universities place on an academic’s public profile today: “Hancock was opposed to staff undertaking government work, except in emergencies or in exceptional cases. He would support them taking on some 'popularising' work, such as writing 'the occasional Penguin', or giving the 'occasional broadcast'. Such work should be limited, however, since he considered that 'Too frequent appearances at the microphone or in the public press would do immense harm to the prestige of a Research University particularly in Australia'”. Had Hancock foreseen this he would have adamantly opposed Swan’s appointment on these grounds alone and fully supported ANU’s neglect of any building named after someone with such a high public profile. Nonetheless, Hancock did approve, with great difficulty, Swan’s leave to go to India and MIT.
- 34.
Solow wrote: “I have just finished reading the article you so kindly sent me, and I must tell you that I can’t remember when I’ve enjoyed a piece of economics so much. It was sheer pleasure. Moreover, I have an infallible way of knowing that everything you say about the nature of capital as an input is right: it’s exactly what I would say myself!”.
- 35.
In the Terrigal Conference, 4th February 1975, Cairns called for the creation of a new department with the primary purpose of planning the long-term future of the economy.
- 36.
According to John Pitchford’s obituary of Wilf Salter, he actually suffered a heart attack which may have been brought on by a serious case of chicken pox. I recall this event at the time, and it came as a great shock and loss to my father, Trevor Swan. See also Trevor Swan’s obituary (1963) and that of Selwyn Cornish (2004), together with Weber (2011).
- 37.
Peter Swan is not sure whether his father intended him to be a smoker or not. At the tender age of 15 I (Peter) was required to take a puff of Trevor Swan’s cigarette. The vile taste and shocking effect of the smoke in my lungs had the fortunate effect of putting me off smoking for life.
- 38.
In a letter written by Swan dated April 6, 1959.
- 39.
Martin’s sources are an interview with Ron Gilbert, 14 July 1989, who was an economist in the Prime Minister’s Department at the time and subsequent correspondence. There are also two of Salter’s lengthy memoranda in AA, M2576/ 1, Item 57 in the National Archives.
- 40.
John Stone, born in 1929, was Secretary of the Treasury between 1979 and 1984. He was a National Party Queensland senator over the period 1988–1990.
- 41.
Perhaps fortunately, this extreme recommendation to deny tax deductibility was never implemented.
- 42.
In personal communication.
- 43.
- 44.
Wheeler had written to Alan Carmody, Secretary to the Department of the Prime Minister, on October 11, 1976, in a letter headed: “The Inflationary Effects of Devaluation”, and attaching a Treasury paper arguing against devaluation.
- 45.
In correspondence, Stammer describes Kasper’s important contribution “as a breath of fresh air”.
- 46.
Higgins defined as fair and reasonable “a wage that covers the normal needs of the average employee, regarded as a human being living in a civilized community”.
- 47.
See, for example, Peter L. Swan and Ian Harper (1982). Ian Harper was appointed to the Reserve Bank Board in 2016 and his current term is due to end in 2026.
- 48.
This process was further aided when in 1987 the Labor Government implemented the Campbell Committee plan (based on Peter Swan, 1982) to integrate company and personal taxation, effectively abolishing company tax for Australian taxpayers and substantially lowering the cost of capital (see Peter Swan, 2019) by the introduction of franking credits.
- 49.
Information supplied in private correspondence by Stammer in September 2021.
- 50.
Bob Johnston AC, born 1924, was Governor over the period 1982–1990, following Harry Knight, and is thus currently 97 years of age.
- 51.
If there was an upside to decades of furtive and exceedingly expensive surveillance, it provided me with the colour and other details, even license number plates, of various cars that Trevor Swan once owned in the 1950s. I was particularly impressed by Trevor Swan’s black BMC Worsley 6–90. This was standard fare for British detectives and televised police series until the well into the 1960s.
- 52.
Millmow (2021, p.349) reports: “At the 1979 ACE conference, Geoff Harcourt recalled two of Australia’s greatest economists, Colin Clark and Trevor Swan, clashing after the former asserted that public servants who administered import controls were corrupt. Swan stormed out of the lecture theatre”. Only ten years earlier, in a letter to the Vice Chancellor November 4, 1969, Swan named “the only possible living economist who, as Frank Fenner suggested, might be appointed as Chairman of the Natural Resources Centre—it must be Colin Clark”. Frank Fenner AC CMG MBE FRS FAA (1914–2010) was an Australian scientist with a distinguished career in the field of virology. Frank Fenner’s wife, Bobby, was a close friend of my mother, Pat Swan. Tragedy struck the Fenner household when one of the Fenner’s daughters was shot dead by their next door neighbour’s daughter in an apparent joint suicide pact. Murder charges were not pursued against the neighbour's daughter, Catherine Webb (1943–2007), who became a famous war correspondent.
- 53.
Noel Butlin halted a seminar I was giving on Australia’s car industry and its incredibly high levels of protection when I mentioned the possibility of corruption and bribes. For example, when I was working at the Tariff Board in 1972, General Motors Holden announced that it was providing a highly subsidized car to the Prime Minister, Gough Whitlam. I was told I could not comment on it to the Press.
- 54.
Geoff Brennan, who was at the same dinner, recalls: “I thought Colin (who had made what seemed to me an entirely reasonable general point about the hospitality of quotas as a general policy instrument, to corruption) was totally unfairly attacked. But Trevor has been on edge all evening (we sat together at dinner and he had been at odds with Keith Frearson—who to be fair was in a pretty aggressive and obnoxious mood)”. Source: Personal correspondence 21/09/2021.
- 55.
Trevor had correspondence with Bruce Williams, Vice Chancellor of the University of Sydney, over a scathing review by Piero Sraffa of Hayek’s Prices and Production, in The Economic Journal, March 1932. The correspondence is really over the origins of a quotation from Voltaire. Sraffa quotes Voltaire without any details as to its source: “you can kill a flock of sheep by incantations, plus a little poison”.
- 56.
How Canberra Airport identified Trevor Swan’s son as a danger to aircraft remains a mystery.
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Swan, P.L. (2022). Introduction. In: Trevor Winchester Swan, Volume I. Palgrave Studies in the History of Economic Thought. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-13737-2_1
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