Abstract
The intraseasonal variations that bridge weather and climate time scales in the range of 20–90 days are introduced in this chapter by way of illustrating their features from observations and reanalysis. The various theories proposed to explain their features are also presented. The operational detection of the propagating intraseasonal signal is described. The potential influence of the large-scale intraseasonal variations on extreme weather events is also discussed.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Adames, A. F. and J. M. Wallace, 2015: Three-dimensional structure and evolution of the moisture field in the MJO. J Atmos Sci., 72(10):3733–3754.
Adames, A. F. and E. D. Maloney, 2021: Moisture mode theory’s contribution to advances in our understanding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and other tropical disturbances. Curr. Clim. Change reports, 7, 72–85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-021-00172-4.
Adames, A. F., S. W. Powell, F. Ahmed, V. C. Mayta, and J. D. Neelin, 2021: Tropical precipitation evolution in a buoyancy-budget framework. J Atmos Sci., 78(2), 509–528.
Camargo, S. J., M. C. Wheeler, and A. H. Sobel, 2009: Diagnosis of the MJO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis using an empirical index. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3061–3074.
Carvalho, L. M. V., C. Jones, and T. Ambrizzi, 2005: Opposite phases of the Antarctic Oscillation and relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity in the tropics during the austral summer. J. Climate, 18, 702–718.
Chang, C. P., and H. Lim, 1988: Kelvin wave-CISK: A possible mechanism for the 30–50 day oscillations, J. Atmos. Sci., 45,1709–1720.
Chen, S. S., and R. A. Houze Jr., 1997: Diurnal variation of deep convective systems over the tropical Pacific warm pool, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 123, 357–388.
DeMott, C. A., N. P. Klingaman, and S. J. Woolnough, 2015: Atmosphere-ocean coupled processes in the Madden-Julian oscillation. Rev Geophys. 53(4):1099–1154.
DeMott, C. A., N. P. Klingaman, W. -L. Tseng, M. A. Burt, Y. Gao, and D. A. Randall, 2019: The convection connection: how ocean feedbacks affect tropical mean moisture and MJO propagation. J Geophys Res Atmosph., 124(22):11910–11931.
Domeisen, D. I. V., and Coauthors, 2020: The role of the stratosphere in subseasonal to seasonal prediction: 2. Predictability arising from stratosphere-troposphere coupling. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 125, e2019JD030923, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd030923.
Goswami, B. N., R. S. Ajayamohan, P. K. Xavier, and D. Sengupta, 2003: Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(8), https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016734.
Grimm, A. M., and P. L. Silva Dias, 1995: Analysis of tropical–extratropical interactions with influence functions of a barotropic model. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3538–3555.
Hendon, H. H., and M. L. Salby, 1994: The life cycle of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 2225–2237.
Herbertson, A. J., 1901: Outlines of Physiography: An Introduction to the Study of the Earth. Edward Arnold, 312 pp.
Janicot, S., F. Mounier, N. M. J. Hall, S. Leroux, B. Sultan, and G. N. Kiladis, 2009: Dynamics of the West African monsoon. Part IV: Analysis of 25–90-day variability of convection and the role of the Indian monsoon. J. Climate, 22, 1541–1565.
Janicot, S., and Coauthors, 2011: Intraseasonal variability of the West African monsoon. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 12, 58–66.
Jones, C. and B. C. Weare, 1996: The role of the low-level moisture convergence and ocean latent heat fluxes in the Madden and Julian Oscillation: An observational analysis using ISCCB data and ECMWF analyses. J. Climate, 9, 3086–3104.
Jones, C., D. E. Waliser, K. M. Lau, and W. Stern, 2004: Global occurrences of extreme precipitation events and the Madden–Julian oscillation: Observations and predictability. J. Climate, 17, 4575–4589.
Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471.
Karmakar, N. and V. Misra, 2019: The relation of intraseasonal variations with local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon. J. Geophys. Res., https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD029642.
Karmakar, N. and V. Misra, 2020: Differences in northward propagation of convection over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal during boreal summer. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2019JD031648. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031648
Karmakar, N., W. R. Boos, and V. Misra, 2020: Influence of intraseasonal variability on the development of monsoon depressions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090425, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090425.
Kemball-Cook, S. and B. Wang, 2001: Equatorial waves and air-sea interaction in the Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 14, 2923–2942.
Kidston, J., A. A. Scaife, S. C. Hardiman, D. M. Mitchell, N. Butchart, M. P. Baldwin, and L. J. Gray, 2015: Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather. Nat. Geosci., 8, 433–440, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2424.
Kiladis, G. N., K. H. Straub, and P. T. Haertel, 2005: Zonal and vertical structure of the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2790–2809, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3520.1.
Koster, R.D., and others 2010: Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L02402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041677.
Krishnamurti, T. N. and H. Bhalme, 1976: Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I: Observational aspects. J. Atmos. Sci., 33(10), 1937–1954.
Krishnamurti, T. N. and D. Subrahmanyam, 1982: The 30–50 day mode at 850 mb during MONEX. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 2088–2095.
Lau, K.-M., and L. Peng. 1987: Origin of low-frequency (intraseasonal) oscillations in the tropical atmosphere. Part I: Basic theory, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 950–972.
Lawrence, D. M. and P. J. Webster, 2002: The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation: relationship between northward and eastward movement of convection. J Atmos Sci., 59(9):1593–1606
L’Heureux, M. L., and R. W. Higgins, 2008: Boreal winter links between the Madden–Julian oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation. J. Climate, 21, 3040–3050.
Liebmann, B., and C. A. Smith, 1996: Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 1275–1277.
Lin, J., B. Mapes, M. Zhang, and M. Newman, 2004: Stratiform precipitation, vertical heating profiles, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 296–309.
Lin, H., and G. Brunet, 2009: The influence of the Madden–Julian oscillation on Canadian wintertime surface air temperature. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2250–2262.
Link, J., Tolman, H. & Robinson, K. NOAA’s strategy for unified modelling. Nature 549, 458 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/549458b.
Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1971: Detection of a 40- 50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 702–708.
Madden, R. A., and P. R. Julian, 1972: Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40–50 day period. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 1109–1123.
Marengo, J. A., and Coauthors, 2012: Recent developments on the South American Monsoon System. Int. J. Climatol., 32(1), 1–21, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2254.
McPhaden, M. J., 1982: Variability in the central equatorial Indian Ocean. Part I: Ocean dynamics. J. Mar. Res., 40, 157–176.
Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, G. Boer, R. Burgman, G. Brantstator, C. Cassou, S. Corti, G. Danabasoglu, F. Doblas-Reyes, and Co-Authors, 2014: Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches. Bull. Amer. Soc., 95(2), 243–267, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1.
Merryfield, W. J., and Coauthors, 2020: Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction. Bull. Amer. Soc., https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1.
Mo, K. C., C. Jones, and J. N. Paegle, 2012: Pan-America. Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere–Ocean Climate System, 2nd ed. W. K.-M. Lau and D. E. Waliser, Eds., Springer, 111–146.
Molcard, R., M. Fieux, and A. G. Ilahude, 1996: The Indo–Pacific throughflow in the Timor Passage. J. Geophys. Res., 101 (C5), 12 411–12 420.
Murakami, M.,1976: Analysis of summer monsoon fluctuations over India. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 54 (1), 15–31.
Nakazawa, T., 1986: Mean features of 30–60 day variations as inferred from 8-year OLR data, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 64, 777–786.
Nakazawa, T., 1988: Tropical super clusters within intraseasonal variations over the western Pacific, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 66, 823–836.
Orsolini, Y. J., R. Senan, G. Balsamo, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F. Vitart, A. Weisheimer, A. Carrasco, and R. E. Benestad, 2013: Impact of snow initialization on sub-seasonal forecasts. Climate Dyn., 41, 1969–1982, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1782-0.
Rao, S. A., J.-J. Luo, S. K. Behera, and T. Yamagata, 2008: Generation and termination of Indian Ocean dipole events in 2003, 2006 and 2007. Climate Dyn., 33, 751–767, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0498-z.
Raymond, D. J., 2001: A new model of the Madden-Julian oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2807–2819.
Rui, H., and B. Wang, 1990: Development characteristics and dynamic structure of tropical intraseasonal convection anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 357–379.
Sigmond, M., J. F. Scinocca, V. V. Kharin, and T. G. Shepherd, 2013: Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings. Nat. Geosci., 6, 98–102, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1698.
Sikka, D. and S. Gadgil, 1980: On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian, longitudes during the southwest monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 108(11):1840–1853. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)1082.0.CO;2.
Takayabu, Y. N., 1994: Large-scale cloud disturbances associated with equatorial waves. part II: Westward-propagating inertiogravity waves, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 72, 451–465.
Tam, C. -Y. and N. -C. Lau, 2005: Modulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation by ENSO: Inferences from observations and GCM simulations. J. Met. Soc. Japan, 83, 727–743.
Teng, H., G. Branstator, A. B. Tawfik, and P. Callaghan, 2019: Circumglobal response to prescribed soil moisture over North America. J. Climate, 32, 4525–4545, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0823.1.
Thompson, D. B., and P. E. Roundy, 2013: The relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation and U.S. violent tornado outbreaks in the spring. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 2087–2095.
Uehling, J., V. Misra, A. Bhardwaj, and N. Karmakar, 2021: Characterizing the local variations of the Northern Australian Rainy Season. Mon. Wea. Rev. In review.
Vitart, F., 2017: Madden–Julian oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 2210–2220, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3079.
Wang, B., 2003: Fundamental dynamics of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Extended abstract to ECMWF workshop, November 3–6. Available from: https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2004/12985-fundamental-dynamics-tropical-intraseasonal-oscillation.pdf.
Wang, B., and H. Rui, 1990: Dynamics of the coupled moist Kelvin-Rossby wave on an equatorial beta plane, J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 397–413.
Weickmann, K. M., G. R. Lussky, and J. E. Kutzbach, 1985: Intraseasonal (30–60 day) fluctuations of outgoing longwave radiation and 250 mb stream function during northern winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 941–961.
Wheeler, M., and G. N. Kiladis, 1999: Convectively coupled equatorial waves: Analysis of clouds and temperature in the wavenumber-frequency domain, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 374– 399.
Wheeler, M. C., and H. H. Hendon, 2004: An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: Development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon. Wea.Rev., 132, 1917–1932.
Wheeler, M. C. and J. L. McBride, 2012: Australian monsoon. Intraseasonal Variability of the Atmosphere–Ocean Climate System, 2nd ed. W. K.-M. Lau and D. E. Waliser, Eds., Springer, 147–198.
Williams, I. N., Y. Lu, L. M. Kueppers, W. J. Riley, S. Biraud, J. E. Bagley, and M. S. Torn, 2016: Land–atmosphere coupling and climate prediction over the US southern Great Plains. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 121, 12 125–12 144, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025223.
**e, Y.-B., S.-J. Chen, I.-L. Zhang, and Y.-L. Hung, 1963: A preliminarily statistic and synoptic study about the basic currents over southeastern Asia and the initiation of typhoon (in Chinese). Acta Meteor. Sin., 33, 206–217.
Yano, J.-I., and K. Emanuel, 1991: An improved model of the equatorial troposphere and its coupling with stratosphere, Atmos. Sci., 48, 377–389.
Zhang, C., 2005: Madden-Julian Oscillation. Rev. Geophys., 43, RG2003, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004RG000158.
Zhang, C., 2013: Madden-Julian oscillation: bridging weather and climate. Bull. Amer. Soc., 1849–1870, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00026.1.
Zhang, F., Y. Q. Sun, L. Magnusson, R. Buizza, S. -J. Lin, J. -H. Chen, and K. Emanuel, 2019: What is the predictability limit of midlatitude weather? J. Atmos. Sci., 76(4), 1077–1091, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-18-0269.1.
Straub, K. H., 2013: MJO initiation in the real-time multivariate MJO index. J. Climate, 26, 1130–1151, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00074.1.
Ventrice, M. J., M. C. Wheeler, H. H. Hendon, C. J. Schreck III, C. D. Thorncroft, and G. N. Kiladis, 2013: A modified multivariate Madden–Julian oscillation index using velocity potential. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 4197–4210, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00327.1.
Wolding, B. O., and E. D. Maloney, 2015: Objective diagnosis and the Madden–Julian oscillation. Part I: Methodology. J. Climate, 28, 4127–4140, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00688.1.
Liu, P., 2014: MJO structure associated with the higher-order CEOF modes. Climate Dyn., 43, 1939–1950, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-2017-0.
Liu, P., Q. Zhang, C. Zhang, Y. Zhu, M. Khairoutdinov, H. -M. Kim, C. Schumacher, and M. Zhang, 2016: A revised real-time multivariate MJO index. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 627–642, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0237.1.
Lorenz, E. N., 1969: The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289–307. https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v21i3.10086.
Maycock, A. C. and P. Hitchcock, 2015: Do split and displacement sudden stratospheric warmings have different annular mode signatures? Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 10,943-10,951. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066754
Sui, C.-H., and K.-M. Lau (1989), Origin of low-frequency (intraseasonal) oscillations in the tropical atmosphere. Part II: Structure and propagation of mobile wave-CISK modes and their modification by lower boundary forcings, J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 37–56.
Cho, H. R., and D. Pendlebury, 1997: Wave CISK of equatorial waves and the vertical distribution of cumulus heating. J. Atmos. Sci., 54 , 2429–2440.
Sobel, A. H., S. E. Yuter, C. S. Bretherton, and G. N. Kiladis, 2004: Large-scale meteorology and deep convection during TRMM KWAJEX. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 422–444.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2023 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Misra, V. (2023). The Intraseasonal Variations. In: An Introduction to Large-Scale Tropical Meteorology. Springer Atmospheric Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12887-5_6
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-12887-5_6
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-031-12886-8
Online ISBN: 978-3-031-12887-5
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)