Should the Implementation of Monetary Policy Be Subject to Rules?

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Debates in Monetary Macroeconomics

Abstract

In this chapter, the authors adopt a Modern Monetary Theory lens and argue that the setting of interest rates should be subject to rules, such as a target policy rate, as opposed to central bank discretion. A number of theoretical arguments are advanced as to why reliance on monetary policy to achieve full employment and price stability is ill-advised. Thus monetary policy would need to be complemented by the fiscal policy which has stronger and more predictable short-term effects on the macroeconomy. The authors advocate a job guarantee, along with infrastructure spending, which address the challenges associated with achieving and maintaining full employment and price stability.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Chapter
GBP 19.95
Price includes VAT (United Kingdom)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
GBP 111.50
Price includes VAT (United Kingdom)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
GBP 139.99
Price includes VAT (United Kingdom)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free ship** worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
GBP 139.99
Price includes VAT (United Kingdom)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free ship** worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agarwal, R., & Kimball, M. S. (2019). Enabling deep negative rates to fight recessions: A guide. WP/19/84. International Monetary Fund.

    Google Scholar 

  • Asensio, A., & Hayes, M. (2009). The post Keynesian alternative to inflation targeting. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 6(1), 65–79.

    Google Scholar 

  • Aspromourgos, T. (2011). Can and should monetary policy pursue a zero real interest rate, permanently? Metroeconomica, 62, 635–655.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Assenmacher, K., & Krogstrup, S. (2018). Monetary policy with negative interest rates: Decoupling cash from electronic money, WP/18/191. International Monetary Fund.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bank of England. (1999). The transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Bank of England. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/other/monetary/montrans.pdf

  • Bank of England. (2015). The Bank of England’s sterling monetary framework. Bank of England. www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/Pages/sterlingoperations/redbook.aspx

  • Batini, N., & Nelson, E. (2002). The lag from monetary policy actions to inflation: Friedman revisited. Discussion Paper No. 6, External MPC Unit, Bank of England.

    Google Scholar 

  • Borio, C., & Hofmann, B. (2017). Is monetary policy less effective when interest rates are persistently low? Monetary and Economics Department, BIS Working Papers No. 628, April.

    Google Scholar 

  • Borio, C. E., McCauley, R. N., McGuire, P., & Sushko, V. (2016, September). Covered interest parity lost: Understanding the cross-currency basis. BIS Quarterly Review.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cliffe, M. (2016, 26 February). Negative rates, negative reactions. VoxEU.org. https://voxeu.org/article/negative-rates-negative-reactions

  • Coenen, G., Ehrmann, M., Gaballo, G., Hoffmann, P., Nakov, A., Nardelli, S., Persson, E., & Strasser, G. (2017). Communication of monetary policy in unconventional times. ECB Working Paper Series, No. 2080.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dantas, F. (2016, October). Normalizing the fed funds rate: The fed’s unjustified rationale. Levy Institute Working Paper No. 876.

    Google Scholar 

  • Davidson, P. (2006). Can, or should, a central bank inflation target? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 28(4), 689–703.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. (no date). The recession and recovery in perspective, Special Studies. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications/special-studies/recession-in-perspective

  • Forstater, M. (1999). Flexible full employment: Structural implications of discretionary public sector employment. Journal of Economic Issues, 32(2), 557–563.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forstater, M., & Mosler, W. (2005). The natural rate of interest is zero. Journal of Economic Issues, 39(2), 535–542.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Friedman, M. (1961). The lag in effects of monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy, 69, 447–466.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fullwiler, S. (2013). The costs and benefits of a job guarantee: Estimates from a multi-country econometric model. In M. J. Murray, & M. Forstater (Eds.), The job guarantee program: Toward true full employment. Palgrave Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gnos, C., & Rochon, L.-P. (2007). The new consensus and Post-Keynesian interest rate policy. Review of Political Economy, 17(3), 369–386.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Godley, W., & Lavoie, M. (2007). Fiscal policy in a stock-flow consistent (SFC) model. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 30(1), 79–100.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Graham, A. (2019). Analyzing the effects of negative interest rates across five economies. https://www.toptal.com/finance/market-research-analysts/effects-of-negative-interest-rates

  • Greenspan, A. (1997, August). Maintaining financial stability in a global economy. Remarks from the Annual Economic Symposium sponsored by FRB Kansas City, Jackson Hole WY. http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=3629

  • Harvey, J. (2009). Currencies, capital flows and crises: A post Keynesian analysis of exchange rate determination. Routledge.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • International Monetary Fund. (2018). Casting light on central bank digital currency. International Monetary Fund Staff Discussion Report No. 18/08. International Monetary Fund.

    Google Scholar 

  • International Monetary Fund. (2021a, 3 March). The evidence is in on negative interest rate policies. IMF Blog. https://blogs.imf.org/2021a/03/03/the-evidence-is-in-on-negative-interest-rate-policies/

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2021b, 5 May). US dollar share of global foreign exchange reserves drops to 25-year low. IMF Blog. https://blogs.imf.org/2021b/05/05/us-dollar-share-of-global-foreign-exchange-reserves-drops-to-25-year-low/?utm_medium=email&utm_source= g

  • Jauregui, C., & Natraj, G. V. (2017, 13–15 December). The puzzle of persistent covered interest rate parity deviations: Does monetary policy matter? Mimeo, RBA Workshop, Quantitative Macroeconomics. https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/workshops/research/2017/pdf/rba-workshop-2017-ganesh-viswan.pdf

  • Juniper, J., Sharpe, T. P., & Watts, M. J. (2014–15). Modern monetary theory: Contributions and critics. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 37(2), 281–307.

    Google Scholar 

  • Juniper, J., Nadolny, A., Pantelopoulos, G. & Watts, M. J. (2021, June). Orthodox macroeconomic textbooks: A critical evaluation using institutional practice as a benchmark. International Review of Economics Education, 37, 1–11.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M. (1923). A tract on monetary reform. Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The general theory of employment interest and money. Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Knapp, G. F. (1924). The state theory of money. Reprinted by Augustus M. Kelley, Clifton, NJ: 1973.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kuroda, H. (2016, 3 February). Introduction to ‘Quantitative and qualitative monetary easing with a negative interest rate’. Speech given by the Governor of the Bank of Japan at the Kisaragi-kai Meeting in Tokyo. https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/press/koen_2016/data/ko160203a1.pdf

  • Lavoie, M. (2014). Post-Keynesian economics: New foundations. Edward Elgar.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Lavoie, M., & Seccareccia, M. (2019). Some reflections on Pasinetti’s fair rate of interest. Bulletin of Political Economy, 13(2), 85–111.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lerner, A. (1944). The economics of control: Principles of welfare economics. Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lilley, A., & Rogoff, K. (2019). The case for implementing effective negative interest rate policy, strategies for monetary policy. Hoover Institution Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mason, J. W. (2014, 17 February). A response to Tom Palley. http://jwmason.org/slackwire/a-response-to-tom-palley/

  • Minsky, H. P. (1986). Stabilizing an unstable economy. Yale University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell, W. F. (1998). The buffer stock employment model—full employment without a NAIRU. Journal of Economic Issues, 32(2), 547–555.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell, W. F. (2009a, 30 August). The natural rate of interest is zero. Billy Blog. http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=4656

  • Mitchell, W. F. (2009b, 20 September). Operational design arising from modern monetary theory. Billy Blog. http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=5098

  • Mitchell, W. F. (2015, 6 May). Iceland’s sovereign money proposal—part 2. Billy Blog. http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=30833

  • Mitchell, W. F. (2017a, 18 October). British productivity slump—all down to George Osborne’s austerity obsession. Billy Blog. http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=37118

  • Mitchell, W. F. (2017b, 25 May). 4 Years later—the European youth guarantee is an under-funded failure. Billy Blog. http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=36078

  • Mitchell, W. F., & Muysken, J. (2008). Full employment abandoned: Shifting sands and policy failures. Edward Elgar.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell, W. F. & Watts, M. J. (2013, November). Capacity constraints and the job guarantee. Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE) Working Paper No. 04–13.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moler, W., & Armstrong, P. (2019). A discussion of central bank operations and interest rate policy. https://gimms.org.uk/2019/02/24/central-bank-operations-interest-rate-policy/

  • Palley, T. I. (2015a). Money, fiscal policy, and interest rates: A critique of modern monetary theory. Review of Political Economy, 27(1), 1–23.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palley, T. I. (2015b). The critics of modern money theory (MMT) are right. Review of Political Economy, 27(1), 45–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palley, T. I. (2016). Why negative interest rate policy (NIRP) is ineffective and dangerous. Real World Economics Review, 76(1), 5–15.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pantelopoulos, G., & Watts, M. J. (2021). Voluntary and involuntary constraints on the conduct of macroeconomic policy: An application to the UK. Journal of Economic Issues, 55(1), 225–245.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pasinetti, L. L. (1981). Structural change and economic growth: A theoretical essay on the dynamics of the wealth of nations. Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Posen, A. (2006). Why central banks should not burst bubbles. International Finance, 9(1), 109–124.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pressman, S. (2019). How low can we go? The limits of monetary policy. Review of Keynesian Economics, 7(2), 137–150.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rochon, L.-P., & Setterfield, M. (2007). Interest rates, income distribution and monetary policy dominance: Post-Keynesians and the ‘fair rate’ of interest. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 30(1), 13–41.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rochon, L.-P., & Setterfield, M. (2012). A Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with conflict inflation and Post Keynesian nominal interest rate rules. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 34(3), 497–520.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rogers, C. (1989). Money, interest and capital: A study in the foundations of monetary theory. Cambridge University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Rogoff, K. (2017). The curse of cash. Princeton University Press.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sawyer, M. (2003). Employer of last resort: Could it deliver full employment and price stability? Journal of Economic Issues, 37(4), 881–907.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Setterfield, M. (2009). Macroeconomics without the LM curve: An alternative view. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(1), 273–293.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharpe, T., & Watts, M. J. (2012). Policy advice in crisis: How inter-governmental organizations have responded to the GFC. Journal of Australian Political Economy, 69, Winter, 103–133.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smithin, J. (2007). A real interest rate rule for monetary policy? Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 30(1), 101–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smithin, J. (2013). Essays in the fundamental theory of monetary economics and macroeconomics. World Scientific Publishing.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Smithin, J. (2016a). Endogenous money, fiscal policy, interest rates and the exchange rate regime: A comment on Palley, Tymoigne and Wray. Review of Political Economy, 28(1), 64–78.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smithin, J. (2016b). Endogenous money, fiscal policy, interest rates and the exchange rate regime: Correction. Review of Political Economy, 28(4), 609–611.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smithin, J. (2018). Re-thinking the theory of money, credit and macroeconomics: A new statement for the twenty-first century. Lexington Books.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smithin, J. (2020). Interest rates, income distribution and the monetary policy transmissions mechanism under endogenous money: What have we learned 30 years on from Horizontalists and Verticalists? European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 17(3), 381–398.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smithin. (2021). The methodology for assessing interest rate rules: A reply. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 18(3), 286–292.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tcherneva, P. R. (2020). The case for a job guarantee. Polity.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tymoigne, E. (2009). Central banking, asset prices and financial fragility. Routledge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tymoigne, E., & Wray, L. R. (2015). Modern money theory: A reply to Palley. Review of Political Economy, 27(1), 24–44.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watts, M. J. (2010). How should minimum wages be set in Australia? Journal of Industrial Relations, 52(2), 131–149.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Watts, M. J. (2021a). The methodology for assessing interest rate policy rules: Some comments. European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, 18(3), 275–285.

    Google Scholar 

  • Watts, M. J. (2021b). Unpacking the dynamics of fiscal deficits and debt. University of Newcastle.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wray, L. R. (1998). Understanding modern money. Edward Elgar.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wray, L. R. (2007). A Post Keynesian view of central bank independence, policy targets, and the rules versus discretion debate. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 30(1), 119–141.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wren-Lewis, S. (2020, 14 January). Monetary and fiscal cooperation: The case for a state dependent assignment, Mainly Macro. https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2020/01/monetary-and-fiscal-cooperation-case.html

  • Wright, S. (2021, 20 September). Mortgage stress soars as RBA says tax system pushes up house prices. Sydney Morning Herald. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mortgage-stress-soars-as-rba-says-tax-system-pushes-up-house-prices-20210919-p58sw3.html

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Martin Watts .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2022 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG

About this chapter

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this chapter

Watts, M., Pantelopoulos, G. (2022). Should the Implementation of Monetary Policy Be Subject to Rules?. In: Pressman, S., Smithin, J. (eds) Debates in Monetary Macroeconomics. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-11240-9_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-11240-9_2

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, Cham

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-031-11239-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-031-11240-9

  • eBook Packages: Economics and FinanceEconomics and Finance (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Navigation