Abstract
The future of the Internet as a network of networks has many faces. The focus here is on the scientific side, analyzing the various steps relevant to its possible future as a complex system. (I) The ontological framework is a reality articulated at three major layers: the technological infrastructure (Internet sensu stricto); the Web; and cloud computing, practical applications (apps) and the “mobile Internet.” These are based on designs within artificial environments whose configuration can above all be analyzed in terms of dualities of a complex system, such as structure and dynamics, internal and external perspectives, epistemological and ontological factors. (II) The philosophico-methodological analysis of the Internet — in a broad sense — includes the scientific side, the technological facet and the social dimension. The central aspects of the scientific side are applied science and application of science. This involves the sciences of the Internet and other sciences related to the network of networks. (III) The problems of epistemological and ontological complexity of the Internet as a whole require both an internal and external perspective. They affect the structural complexity, the dynamic complexity and the social dimension of the network of networks. (IV) The role of prediction and prescription concerns above all applied science that deals with complexity. Thus, the task of prediction in the face of the complexity of scientific activity and the social dimension is analyzed together with the task of prescription when facing the complexity of the Internet from the scientific side. This leads to the question of evaluation and meta-evaluation of future studies. (V) The coda offers some final reflections on the question of how to deal scientifically with the future of the Internet in a broad sense.
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Notes
- 1.
It is striking that, in some important books on the Internet, there is no chapter specifically devoted to the future of the Internet or that it is, in fact, focused primarily on the role of prediction in this network of networks. This is the case with Dutton (2014). This extensive book, which has 26 chapters and 607 pages, has only a brief mention of “Internet Studies and future studies of” in the thematic index (related to page 13) and does not have a specific entry for prediction, which appears in passing on the occasion of “Internet and predictive failures” (connect to page 41).
- 2.
Since 2019 more than half of the world’s population uses the network of networks, cf. Meeker (2019, 334 pages). See, in this regard, The Economist (2019). Some companies like Alphabet (owner of YouTube, Google Search, Gmail, Android, Chrome, Maps, Play Store, Drive and Photos) are estimated to cover the entire spectrum of users and reach 4 billion people that use their products or services. See The Economist (2020).
- 3.
This can be seen in publications directly focused on this topic, such as the book of Winter and Ono (2015a).
- 4.
The contents that come from the emerging properties are also of interest to network science, which deals with the relationships that are established with data available in that layer. On the different types of science related to the network of networks, see Gonzalez (2018b, 155–168, especially, 158–161).
- 5.
The characteristics of basic science, applied science and application of science and their differences are analyzed in Gonzalez (2015a, 4, 18, 32–40, 70–71, 151n, 321 and 325).
- 6.
A problem in the realm of applied research — or even in the field of application of science — can give rise to research at a more abstract level, to the point of giving rise to basic science. This is the case of Leonhard Euler, who found inspiration for his mathematical theory of graphs from the Könisberg bridge problem. Tiropanis, T., Personal communication, 21.10.2020.
- 7.
There are a number of similarities with the case of economics as an applied science. See Gonzalez (1998).
- 8.
At least since 2007, the possibility of disruption has been raised, cf. Feldmann (2007). See also Schönwälder et al. (2009, 27). The dystopian or negative future has also been expressly considered as one of the future possibilities for the case of the Web, cf. Hendler (forthcoming).
- 9.
One of the most interesting questions about the Web is to analyze how its dynamics, which has had internal and external elements, has led to the current situation. In this dynamic, one of the outstanding factors is how the semantic web and web 2 were proposed. An analysis of these options was carried out at the time in Floridi (2009). At the present time, with respect to the future, it seems possible that “web3 will not dislodge web2. Instead, the future may belong to a mix of the two, with web3 occupying certain niches.” The Economist (2022, 54).
- 10.
On the differences between applied science and application of science in the context of complexity, see Gonzalez (2020c, 251–257, 259, 262–267, 270, 273, 275–276, and 279n-280).
- 11.
In addition to the development of the sciences directly connected to the Internet, other disciplines, such as communication sciences, contribute to enhance the network of networks within an environment of complexity. See Gonzalez and Arrojo (2019).
- 12.
For pragmatic complexity see Gonzalez (forthcoming-a). Pragmatic complexity is better appreciated in the application of science, as has been seen in the vaccination processes against Covid-19 (Gonzalez, forthcoming-b). But it can also be detected when in the network of networks it is necessary to single out solutions for specific groups or companies or customize solutions for individuals with special needs.
- 13.
On prediction as ontological, epistemological and heuristic, see Gonzalez (2015a, 108–112).
- 14.
The case of economics, which is a dual science (a design science, within the sciences of the artificial, and a social science) is representative in this respect, cf. Gonzalez (1998).
- 15.
- 16.
Mobile Internet has led to much more interaction on the Web between people than previous designs.
- 17.
There is a difference between apps and the Web, insofar as apps can enable “islands” where one only accesses the resources available via the practical application (app) and not on the Web. De facto, many apps do not have a Web interface. It happens that this tendency to have “islands” was criticized by T. Berners-Lee a few years ago. Tiropanis, T., Personal communication, 21.10.2020.
- 18.
On “mobile Internet” and prediction, see Yap et al. (2020).
- 19.
“In the last 25 years, over 300.000 academic papers have been written that explicitly mention some aspect of the World Wide Web or the Internet in the title, abstract or keywords of the publication. The overall pattern of this growth is one of nearly continuous linear upward growth since 1990” (Meyer et al., 2016, 1160).
- 20.
This being goal-oriented feature of the sciences of design was emphasized by Simon (1996, xi).
- 21.
An analysis of the distinction between “applied science” and “application of science” in connection with scientific creativity and technological innovation is available in Gonzalez (2013a).
- 22.
Both in the history of the Internet narrated by its main actors (previously cited in the 1997 and 2009 versions) and in other later reconstructions of the network’s trajectory — such as in Greenstein’s book on How the Internet Became Commercial — the existence of successive turning points is highlighted as a result of decisions on design or from interaction with other agents, which also completely changed the initial plan: from a public service network, used for very defined uses of an informative and communicative nature, to a network of networks with strong commercial content and a powerful social dimension for citizens.
- 23.
An analysis of these three facets of historicity can be found in Gonzalez (2011b).
- 24.
On the methods to study the history of the Web, see Priestley et al. (2020).
- 25.
These kinds of “external” changes have repercussions for the organization of the structure in the network of networks. This means that a number of external factors, including national or international security reasons, can lead eventually to internal changes in the structure organizational of the layers.
- 26.
Technology is initially “external” to the sciences of the Internet, but it may become “internal,” insofar as the viability of the use of the designs of the network — aims, process, and results — need technology to have effectiveness or to be efficient.
- 27.
In addition, “the structure of the Internet topology highly impacts the traffic distribution” (Uhlig, 2010, 167).
- 28.
On “multi-agent systems” see Floridi (2014, ix and 180–189).
- 29.
This social dimension includes legal issues, some of them very important, such as the right to privacy.
- 30.
See, for example, the papers published in Winter and Ono (2015a).
- 31.
Among the social repercussions are the economic ones, cf. Brynjolfsson and McAfee (2011).
- 32.
- 33.
Along with the internal dynamic is the external dynamic, where the predictions made should take into account the changes that occur in social activity that affect the bi-directional relationship indicated, so that the predictions should consider internal as well as external aspects.
- 34.
Herbert Simon was aware of the importance of prediction and prescription in systems modeling, but he did not develop the philosophico-methodological distinction between applied science and application of science. See Simon ([1990], 1997b).
- 35.
- 36.
Niiniluoto also points out the existence of application of science as different from applied science. The application of science involves the use of scientific knowledge in the diverse circumstances of the social milieu, cf. Niiniluoto (1993, 1–21, especially, 9 and 19).
- 37.
In the case of the Internet of Things, the feature of the application of scientific solutions is more noticeable for the users than in the case of the network itself.
- 38.
In addition to the network and the Web, Network science also investigates issues related to the third layer (cloud computing, apps and the “mobile Internet”). Thus, “Network Science explores phenomena that include, but are not limited to, the Web or the Internet” (Tiropanis et al., 2015, 82). This means that Network science has two different tasks, depending on the layer in which it works: on the one hand, it contributes to the configuration of the structure of the network and the Web; and, on the other hand, it develops a task with the contents available in cloud computing or on the mobile Internet.
- 39.
“There is no doubt that the prosperity of AI is inseparable with the development of the Internet. However, there has been little attention to the link between AI and the Internet” (Liu et al., 2017, 377).
- 40.
The impact of the future Artificial Intelligence will be also on society and business firms, cf. Makridakis (2017).
- 41.
“The cloud computing environment offers development, installation and implementation of software and data applications ‘as a service.’ Three multi-layered infrastructures namely, platform as a service (PaaS), software as a service (SaaS), and infrastructure as a service (IaaS), exists” (Vasuki et al., 2018, 3842).
- 42.
The increase is very noticeable in “Google’s cloud business, which includes G Suite, its package of professional online services, is growing at more than 50% a year. Revenues are expected to reach $13bn this year, contributing 8% to Alphabet total” (The Economist, 2020, 17).
- 43.
In addition to its main and best-known companies for users (Google, YouTube, Gmail, Android, Chrome, etc.), Alphabet has “other bets,” which are “its non-core businesses, now number 11, each with its own capital structure. These include Access (offering fibre-optic broadband), GV (which invests in startups), Verily (a health-care firm), Waymo (a developer of autonomous cars) and X (a secretive skunk works engaged in all manner of moonshots). Commercially these ventures seem only loosely connected to the core. What links them to the main business is information processing — and specifically these days Artificial Intelligence (AI), which powers everything from search to Waymo’s self-driving cars” (The Economist, 2020, 15).
- 44.
The complementary approach from the internal perspective is through the study of the features of the technological platform of the Internet. On its design, see Hanseth and Lyytinen (2010).
- 45.
Certainly, the scientific and the technological components are not “disconnected” or in a “parallel” situation, insofar as they are in active interaction due to the relations between scientific creativity and technological innovation are bidirectional. Cf. Gonzalez (2013a).
- 46.
From a scientific point of view, the use of the Internet for communication sciences can have an impact on internal aspects (new concepts, novel contents, etc.) as well as on external elements (the users, media organization and policies, media policy and regulations, etc.). Furthermore, from a technological perspective, the use of the network can have consequences in terms of innovation for the technological platform. See, in this regard, Küng et al. (2008).
- 47.
In addition to these emergent properties through the use of the Internet, there are emergent properties of the network itself, i.e., as a technological platform (with an open, share, heterogenous and evolving dynamic). See, in this regard, Hanseth and Lyytinen (2010, 1–19; especially, 10).
- 48.
A clear case is the Web science. The World Wide Web was designed by Tim Berners-Lee around 12 March 1989. It was on 30 April 1993 when the CERN opened it to the public and at no cost to users, cf. Floridi (2014, 18). But its “official” beginning as the scientific field of the Web science is associated with 2006 and the publication of the paper Berners-Lee et al. (2006).
- 49.
The pioneer in this field was Herbert Simon, especially relevant with his book The Sciences of the Artificial, whose third and final version was published by The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1996. The first edition was in 1969 and the second in 1981. This field has different aims, processes, results, and consequences from the social sciences.
- 50.
- 51.
They have some similarities with economics, which is also a science of design (within the sciences of the artificial) in addition to being a social science. Cf. Gonzalez (2008a).
- 52.
In the case of the Internet of Things, see Siow et al. (2018).
- 53.
In addition to the complexity of the network of networks and each of its layers, there is a complexity in the very content they carry or transmit, whether that content is structured (“information”) or unstructured (“data”). Cf. Vasuki, Rajeswari and Prabakaran (2018, 3841–3844; especially, 3841).
- 54.
See, in this regard, Floridi (2014, 14–17).
- 55.
These five options, in the case of economics, are considered in Gonzalez (2015a, 66, 192, 219 and 251).
- 56.
On the distinction between data, information, and knowledge, see Rescher (1999).
- 57.
To predict the spreading of Covid-19, mathematical models can use data from the “mobile Internet,” which can complement data from institutional sources or specialized organizations.
- 58.
This decision-making concerns various types of institutions, both national and international. See, in this regard, Gonzalez (2021).
- 59.
See, in this regard, the analysis made for the case of economics: Schredelseker and Hauser (2008).
- 60.
These constitutive elements of science also are the key components for its conceptual distinction from technology.
- 61.
This analysis is based on the general modes of complexity proposed by Nicholas Rescher (1998, 1–19, especially, 9).
- 62.
“Web science is about more than modeling the current Web. It is about engineering new infrastructure protocols and understanding the society that uses them, and it is about the creation of beneficial new systems” (Berners-Lee et al., 2006, 770–771).
- 63.
According to Walter Isaacson, “collaborative creativity” is a common feature of the innovations related to the scientific activities that support the development of the information and communication technologies. See Isaacson (2014, 1).
- 64.
This is one of the reasons for the success of the services currently provided by the main technology companies in this sector (such as Google with its program translate, which has improved over the years, especially in some languages).
- 65.
Among the functional cases are the operational ones. In this regard, an interesting aspect to be discussed is whether increasing the level of freedom of a system makes it more complex from an operational viewpoint. Cases for study might be the big communicative corporations developed in recent decades.
- 66.
Rescher maintains that, in hierarchical complexity, the higher-order units are “always more complex than the lower-order ones” (Rescher, 1998, 9). Within the sphere of the communication sciences, when the support for broadcasting is the network, this phenomenon can be seen in the case of some corporations with multi-media platforms and presence in multiple countries.
- 67.
The Internet itself as technological network is organized with protocols such as Transmission Control Protocol, TCP, Internet Protocol address, IP, and the Domain Name System, DNS. Meanwhile, the Web has among its main protocols HyperText Transfer Protocol, HTTP, and File Transfer Protocol, FTP.
- 68.
This kind of variety can appear with the combination of social and artificial operations. This possibility can be seen in the use of some social networks of the Internet for communicative purposes, where the performance of the public and the elaboration of designs (e.g., for over-the-top television) end up in operational complexity.
- 69.
This can be the case of the questions “how many links are possible among how many nodes” (Floridi, 2014, 23).
- 70.
A specific analysis of dynamic complexity on the Internet as an information and communication platform from the perspective of the sciences of design and the role of prediction can be found in Gonzalez (2018b).
- 71.
“What causes network requirements to change over time? In my view, it is the interplay among three important drives: new developments in network and computer technology, new approaches to application design, and changing requirements in the larger context in which the Internet sits” (Clark, 2018, 301).
- 72.
The analysis of the development of the Web has shown that the Web has “areas that have largely been studied by physicists and mathematicians using the tools of complex dynamics system analysis” (Berners-Lee et al., 2006, 770).
- 73.
Besides Rescher’s general analysis of complexity, see also another angle: Bishop (2007).
- 74.
Generality is one of the reasons of the success of the design of the Internet. This includes generality regarding the applications that run over it as well as generality concerning the information and communication technologies out of which new can be constructed. Cf. Clark (2018, 42).
- 75.
This can be seen in Tim Berners-Lee’s history of the Web (Berners-Lee, 1999).
- 76.
In the case of evolution, when is related to biological phenomena, Daniel McShea asks that “the reader do not equate complexity with progress” (McShea [1991], 1998, 626). But McShea recognizes that evolutionary trends are frequently related to an increasing adaptability and a growing control by organisms over their environment (cf. Simpson, 1949).
- 77.
On the characterization of “process,” see Rescher (1995).
- 78.
In addition to “process,” Rescher has also developed a set of ideas regarding evolution in epistemological terms. Nevertheless, “process” seems a more basic notion in his approach, insofar as he discusses the “Varieties of Evolutionary Process,” cf. Rescher (1990, 5–12).
- 79.
These strong shifts have not been uncommon in recent decades, such as the introduction of audiovisuals on the Web, making it expressly interactive, or the design of smart phones (such as Apple iPhone) for mobile Internet, which has turned them into de facto laptops for many functions.
- 80.
This was soon detected by Simon, who saw its repercussions for the organizations, cf. Simon ([1986], 1997a).
- 81.
On the distinction between “process,” “evolution,” and “historicity,” cf. Gonzalez (2013b).
- 82.
If we follow the changes operated in the network of networks according to layers, then the revolution in the Internet in the strict sense would be predominately technological, while the revolution in the Web would be primarily scientific. In the case of the cloud computing there is a combination of both. On the concept of “scientific revolution,” I have developed an alternative to Thomas Kuhn (especially with respect to the initial stage) and with important nuances regarding Paul Thagard's conceptual revolutions. Cf. Gonzalez (2011a, b).
- 83.
This social revolution can be seen with the multiple impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, especially in countries that have had strict lockdown. Face-to-face universities were transformed in just a few days into online universities, something that no one had foreseen and it has been like this for months, and many public and private companies became telework centers. See Gonzalez (2020e). These social changes affect individual, group and organizational activities, both public and private. It can also be argued that the constant use of screens also affects cognitive skills.
- 84.
Some changes, such as the design of apps, can be seen as an “evolution” rather than a “revolution,” insofar as apps “rely on the same web architectures” as web browsing, cf. Hendler and Hall (2016, 704).
- 85.
This involves the assumption that there is a social ontology, which is the case of the Internet when its users interact with the artificial designs made scientifically.
- 86.
- 87.
“The Internet is inextricably intertwined with almost every sector of society, increasing its complexity and bringing forth numerous opportunities and challenges. It has been only 50 years from its earliest conception in the early 1960s, to its present state as a vast, interconnected network of networks spanning much of the globe and linking approximately 2.7 billion people, representing 39% of the world’s population, by the end of 2013” (Winter & Ono, 2015b, 1). The expansion has continued since then and the current users are estimated at 4 billion.
- 88.
“Alongside cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, NFTs [non-fungible tokens] are the most visible instantiation of ‘web3’.” The Economist (2022, 53).
- 89.
On 22 February 2016, the founder of Facebook pointed out that around 4.000 million inhabitants of our planet still do not have access to the Internet. Mark Zuckerberg made this statement during his presentation at the Mobile World Congress, held in Barcelona, available at: http://www.informationweek.com/mobile/zuckerberg-hits-mwc-to-talk-drones-ai-vr/d/d-id/1324403, accessed on 8.8.2016. The situation a few years later is different and the users are around that figure. See footnote number 2.
- 90.
One of these dynamic problems is the constant interaction between “internal” and “external” factors while using the network. This issue can be seen in the effects of the participation of the citizens in communicating phenomena over the Web. There is already a measurement of such participation over the Web, which has still its methodological problems, cf. Page and Uncles (2014).
- 91.
- 92.
David Clark has pointed out that there are now other global networks with two features: (a) they use the same kind of technology that the Internet, and (b) they are no directly connected with the network that we know as Internet sensu stricto. Among them are content delivery networks (CDNs). These new networks are part of the application development of the artificial system studied here. It happens that these networks are used by cloud computing providers to give better services, which protect the cloud computing from attacks made by hackers and give more stability to consumers regarding performance. Cf. Clark (2018, 307).
- 93.
See, in this regard, Hooker (2011, 215).
- 94.
“The scale, topology, and power of decentralized information systems such as the Web also pose a unique set of social and public-policy challenges. Although computer and information science have generally concentrated on the representation and analysis of the information, attention also needs to be given to the social and legal relationships behind this information” (Berners-Lee et al., 2006, 770).
- 95.
This can be seen in economics, cf. Gonzalez (1998).
- 96.
This is very clear in the case of applied economics, cf. Sen (1986).
- 97.
This is different from administrative action or policy-making in the strict sense carried out on the basis of the knowledge provided by the experts. The decision in this case would be administrative or strictly political, even though it is based on the application of knowledge given by scientists (as has been seen in the various countries on the occasion of Covid-19).
- 98.
A methodological study of prediction to face complex systems, in general, is in Nicolis and Nicolis (2012).
- 99.
The interdisciplinarity appears in each science of the Internet as well as in the interrelations between them, cf. Tiropanis et al. (2015).
- 100.
See, for example, the historical reconstruction of the Web science and the prognosis made in Hall et al. (2016).
- 101.
Regarding the methodological role of prediction in the network of networks, the problem of the relationship between prediction and the predicted is again raised. In this new scenario, the debate arises in these terms: (a) certain platforms have the capacity to make predictions based on data on the use of the network by users, and (b) these predictions can become a reality — go from correct to true — due precisely to the mechanisms available to these companies to change user habits.
- 102.
This case of the sciences of the Internet can have similarities with the case of economics. In the sciences of design, such as economics, complex dynamics often receives attention, mainly in the sphere of macroeconomics (e.g., market mechanisms, business cycles, economic growth, economic development, etc.), where there are usually more factors involved than in the realm of microeconomics. On the role of prescription in economics, see Gonzalez (2015a, 326–338).
- 103.
- 104.
There are also the values of the social responsibility of the business firms and public corporations in the use of the virtual world of infosphere. Cf. Floridi (2014, 217–220).
- 105.
- 106.
To a large extent, this relation between scientific creativity and technological innovation can be characterized as reciprocal relationality.
- 107.
“Social media analysts look to understand, mathematically and socially, the trends being seen on the Web as reflected through information shared on social networking, web sites and mobile applications” (Hall et al., 2016, 2).
- 108.
An additional aspect is “socio-informatics” or a perspective on the design that is based on the practice and the use of artifacts of information technology. This approach assumes that the computer-supported cooperative work and human-computer interaction in the future will be socially embedded. Thus, if most of the computer applications will be socially embedded, they will be kinds of infrastructures for the development of these very social practices that they are designed to support. Cf. Randall et al. (2018).
- 109.
- 110.
These patterns of action move at the micro, meso and macro levels, where the meso dimension is not usually highlighted and is especially important for practical activity.
- 111.
An eloquent example is in the area of the social sciences: “as polls are increasingly undermined as ways of forecasting the results of democratic elections, analysis of social media conversations is proving to be more accurate methodology for such forecasts, despite the fact that social media users do not present a representative sample of the total electorate” (Hall et al., 2016, 4).
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Acknowledgements
This paper has been written within the framework of the research project FFI2016-79728-P supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economics, Industry and Competitiveness (AEI) and the research project PID2020-119170RB-I00, supported by Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (AEI). A previous version of this paper was presented at the Conference on Grappling with the Futures, organized by Harvard University and Boston University. It was also presented at the Congress entitled For a Bottom-Up Epistemology, organized by the University of Bologna. I am especially grateful to Donald Gillies and Thanassis Tiropanis for their comments on the more developed version of this paper.
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Gonzalez, W.J. (2022). Scientific Side of the Future of the Internet as a Complex System. The Role of Prediction and Prescription of Applied Sciences. In: Gonzalez, W.J. (eds) Current Trends in Philosophy of Science. Synthese Library, vol 462. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-01315-7_6
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