Abstract
Agriculture is a major part of Iran's economy that will face different threats and opportunities and threats from future climate change. Changing rainfall and temperature patterns challenge long-term agricultural management and planning. In this study, the effect of climate change on agricultural management on the coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Makran (Oman Sea) has been investigated. For this purpose, precipitation and temperature parameters of 30 synoptic stations under RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) have been simulated with the SDSM tool. The results show that the probability of increase and decrease of temperature and precipitation, respectively, in Persian Gulf stations is higher than that of the Makran coast. The southern coasts of Iran have the longest growing season in the country due to their unique geographical and climatic characteristics. Also, in the northwest of the Persian Gulf, where agricultural production is especially important, under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the maximum temperature shows a further increase in the future. However, increasing maximum temperature could decrease crop diversity and threaten plants with lower temperature thresholds in the Persian Gulf coast. Also, in the east of the Makran coast, the temperature will increase significantly for RCP 8.5. Generally, agricultural management and the effects of climate change in the Persian Gulf coastal require the application of mitigation/adaptation plans.
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Noorisameleh, Z., Gough, W.A. (2022). The Challenge of Climate Change in Agriculture Management in the Persian Gulf-Oman Sea Coasts in Iran. In: Lama, T., Burman, D., Mandal, U.K., Sarangi, S.K., Sen, H. (eds) Transforming Coastal Zone for Sustainable Food and Income Security. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95618-9_66
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