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Notes
- 1.
A ‘perfect’ prediction is taken as being one that is correct to the nearest whole number, as this is the basis on which almost all polls publish their results. Most of the polls estimated vote shares for the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Brexit Party and all Others, though a few also broke out a separate measurement for the Scottish National Party.
- 2.
Different poll aggregators put the average prediction of the final polls at a 3.1 or 3.2 percentage point lead for Hillary Clinton. She finished 2.1 points ahead but, of course, lost nevertheless in the electoral college.
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Sturgis, P., Kuha, J., Baker, N., Callegaro, M., Fisher, S., Green, J., & Jennings, W. et al. (2018). An assessment of the causes of the errors in the 2015 UK general election opinion polls. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 181, 757–781.
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Mortimore, R. (2022). The Other Election ‘Winners’: Polling and the Pollsters. In: Wring, D., Mortimore, R., Atkinson, S. (eds) Political Communication in Britain. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-81406-9_17
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