Abstract
This article considers the issues of improving the efficiency of projects in the field of telecommunications on the basis of distributed information systems (DIS). Traditional approaches are based on stationary studies of such projects. The reasons for the negative completion of projects of this class are investigated. The author proposes the use of a proactive approach to forecasting the state of implementation of such projects in their interaction with the turbulent external environment. At the same time, effective mechanisms for responding to the controlled positive or negative influence of the external environment on the project parameters are searched for and investigated. The author proposes to consider a three-component system based on the project, product and developer organization (P2O). An example of structural interaction of DIS elements is considered. The model of clustering of interaction with the external dynamic environment is offered. The basis of the studied interaction are three groups of processes—project management, product management, interaction management with the external environment. The mathematical model of the description of forecasting of consequences of influences of changes as reaction to external influences from environment is given. The description of experimental researches which have shown efficiency of the offered approach is given. At the same time, the proposed approach focuses on the possibilities of forming the desired actions for change management through active measures.
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Morozov, V. (2021). Probabilistic Method Proactive Change Management in Telecommunication Projects. In: Ageyev, D., Radivilova, T., Kryvinska, N. (eds) Data-Centric Business and Applications. Lecture Notes on Data Engineering and Communications Technologies, vol 69. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-71892-3_18
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