Siberian school of regional studies in the RAS presidium program “Fundamental problems of the spatial development of the Russian federation: Interdisciplinary synthesis”

Abstract

A concept is proposed for devising a strategy for the country’s spatial development, including the levels of the country as a whole, federal districts, and federal subjects. A new version of the optimization interregional interindustry model is presented, as well as long-term scenarios of the postcrisis development of Russia and Siberia based on the model. Scenarios are based on two possible paradigms of the world’s development, i.e., (a) assuming that “what goes around comes around” (everything will resume its natural course) and (b) implying that the world will be fundamentally different and its development will be mainly innovative. Within the first paradigm, the economic development of Russia and Siberia as its part assumes a stable inertial character. The possibility of development according to the second type will arise if the Russian government proceeds to practical policies, stimulating economic growth, technological renewal and innovations, and economic development, and development of Russia’s Asian and Arctic territories. Predictive estimates are discussed for the development of the Russian Federation and its macroregions within these two scenarios. An original method is presented for measuring spatial transformations based on the computational SIRENA-2 complex, including simulation and normative models at different levels of the spatial hierarchy.