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Using Classification Methods in Forecasting the Level of Geomagnetic Field Disturbance Based on the Kp-Index

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Abstract

The paper explores the possibilities of using data classification methods when forecasting time series of the geomagnetic Kp-index by machine learning methods. To classify categories of the Kp-index based on the degree of disturbance, linear and logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting on top of decision trees, and artificial neural networks of various architectures are used. The results of these methods are compared with a trivial inertial forecast (the statistical indicators of which for problems of this type are always high) at horizons from 3 h to 1 day in 3-h increments. The problem of choosing a cross-validation scheme for selecting the model hyperparameters, ways to overcome the imbalance of categories, the relative importance of input features, as well as the dependence of the results on the test sample (beginning of the 25th solar activity cycle) on inclusion in the training sample of data from the 23rd and 24th cycles or only the 24th cycles are studied. Based on the results, conclusions are drawn about the preferred methods for classifying values of the Kp-index based on the level of geomagnetic disturbance. Ways for further research and possible improvement of the classification quality are outlined, including for determining the characteristic hidden states of Earth’s magnetosphere as a dynamic system in order to improve the quality of forecasting geomagnetic indices.

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Funding

The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation, grant no. 23-21-00237 (https://rscf.ru/en/project/23-21-00237/).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, 119991, Moscow, Russia

    I. M. Gadzhiev, O. G. Barinov, I. N. Myagkova & S. A. Dolenko

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  1. I. M. Gadzhiev
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  2. O. G. Barinov
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  3. I. N. Myagkova
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Correspondence to I. M. Gadzhiev, O. G. Barinov, I. N. Myagkova or S. A. Dolenko.

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Gadzhiev, I.M., Barinov, O.G., Myagkova, I.N. et al. Using Classification Methods in Forecasting the Level of Geomagnetic Field Disturbance Based on the Kp-Index. Geomagn. Aeron. 64, 415–426 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0016793224600140

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