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Explainable XGBoost machine learning model for prediction of ultimate load and free end slip of GFRP rod glued-in timber joints through a pull-out test under various harsh environmental conditions

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Abstract

Timber constructions face the challenge of degradation of wood and its connections when exposed to harsh environmental conditions, leading to a reduction in load-bearing capacity. It is essential to precisely estimate the load-carrying capacity of timber joints under such conditions to maintain the health and stability of the buildings. This study aimed to develop a dependable machine learning model to support two targets, namely the ultimate load and free end slip of the glued-in rod (GIR), using data obtained from a pull-out experiment conducted in the literature in which 63 specimens of glued-in GFRP rebar in timber cubes were tested after exposure to cycles of the harsh environment of drying–wetting of water with chloride ion and also to the ultra-violet (UV) light. To accomplish this, the XGBoost algorithm was employed, and after the data were preprocessed, it was integrated into the existing dataset. The resulting \({R}^{2}\) score and MSE values for the model with the ultimate load target were 0.97 and 1.88, respectively, whereas the corresponding values for the model with the free end slip target were 0.97 and 0.01. Additionally, to gain a deeper understanding of the machine learning model, the SHapley values technique was utilized to illustrate the impact of each feature on the predicted values.

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Data and associated codes

GitHub hosts both the experimental database and Jupyter Notebook Python code for the XGBoost model and Shapley values used in this study. (https://github.com/AlirezaMahmoudian/Explainable-XGBoost-machine-learning-model-for-prediction-of-ultimate-load-and-free-end-slip-of-GFRP).

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The authors did not receive support from any organization for the submitted work.

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Nima Tajik: Conceptualization, Methodology, Visualization, Writing - Original Draft, Investigation, Formal analysis, preparation, Software Alireza Mahmoudian: Conceptualization, Methodology, Visualization, Writing - Original Draft, Software, Data curation, Formal analysis Mostafa Mohammadzadeh Taleshi: Conceptualization, Methodology, Visualization, Writing - Original Draft, preparation Mohammad Yekrangnia: Conceptualization, Resources, Supervision, Writing - Review & Editing, Project administration

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Correspondence to Mohammad Yekrangnia.

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The authors declare no competing interests. All authors certify that they have no affiliations with or involvement in any organization or entity with any financial interest or non-financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this manuscript.

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Tajik, N., Mahmoudian, A., Mohammadzadeh Taleshi, M. et al. Explainable XGBoost machine learning model for prediction of ultimate load and free end slip of GFRP rod glued-in timber joints through a pull-out test under various harsh environmental conditions. Asian J Civ Eng 25, 141–157 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42107-023-00764-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s42107-023-00764-5

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