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Map** of current and future soil erosion risk in a semi-arid context (haouz plain - Marrakech) based on CMIP6 climate models, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and RUSLE

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Abstract

Water erosion of soils is increased by global warming and has a detrimental effect on natural resources. The situation is worse in the High Atlas, where a combination of natural and human forces accelerate erosion and reduce the income of local families. In this work, we assessed the existing erosion of the Haouz plain and projected water erosion of the soils into the future. The survey was conducted in three stages. In the first step, we estimated the annual erosion rate of the Haouz plain from 1992 to 2020 using the Revised Universal Soil Equation (RUSLE), publicly available data and the most recent land observations. The efficiency of the multi-criteria analysis method, taking into account how the second step’s water erosion is affected by the five RUSLE equation parameters. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to determine a weight for each criterion. Using new erosion parameters and the projected erosivity of precipitation from the sixteenth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models, the third stage involved predicting soil water erosion in 2040.

According to the results, the average annual soil erosion rate of the Haouz plain is currently 3.53 t ha-1 y-1. According to our predictions, the Haouz Plain will experience an increase in erosion to 4.41 t ha-1 y-1 and 5.31 t ha-1y-1 by 2040, respectively, under the circumstances indicated by RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Policy makers seeking to adopt environmentally sound measures to halt the depletion of soil and water resources in semi-arid environments could use the current assessment and future predictions of soil water erosion in the Haouz Plain as a basis for data.

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Highlights

A map** of the current soil water erosion risk in the Haouz plain was predicted.

The effects of climate change were integrated into the prediction of the R factor in 2040.

Water erosion in 2040 could potentially increase from current rates with rates ranging from 24.90 to 50.40%.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology, Faculty of Science and Technology, Laboratory of Geo-Resources, Geo-Environment and Civil Engineering (L3G), Cadi Ayad University, Marrakech, Morocco

    Youssef Bammou & Brahim Igmoullan

  2. Department of Geomorphology and Geomatics, Scientific Institute, Mohammed V University in Rabat, Avenue Ibn Battouta, P.B 703, Agdal, Rabat‑City, 10106, Morocco

    Brahim Benzougagh

  3. Department of Geography, Laboratory Center of Studies for the Development of Territories and the Environment (CEDETE), University of Orléans, UFR LLSH, Orléans, France

    Abdelkrim Bensaid

  4. Petroleum and Mining Engineering Department, Tishk International University, Erbil, Iraq

    Ayad M. Fadhil Al-Quraishi

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  1. Youssef Bammou
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  2. Brahim Benzougagh
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Bammou, Y., Benzougagh, B., Bensaid, A. et al. Map** of current and future soil erosion risk in a semi-arid context (haouz plain - Marrakech) based on CMIP6 climate models, the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and RUSLE. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 10, 1501–1514 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-023-01845-9

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