Abstract
Shenyang in Liaoning Province, is an important industrial city in China, contributing to the development of the economy. Recently, Shenyang has experienced degradation of forests and grasslands, and water shortages leading to ecological dysfunction of urban water bodies, which in turn influence floods. This study combined remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies to analyze land use change trends in Shenyang from 2005 to 2018. Then, the HEC–HMS hydrological model was applied to forecast flood characteristics parameters, such as flood peak flow and peak present time for multiple floods in the basin, taking the **ushui river basin as an example, to provide values for achieving advance flood forecasting. The results showed that (1) all land categories in Shenyang had interconverted to different degrees; (2) the spatial and temporal distribution of annual precipitation in Shenyang varied significantly, showing an overall increasing and decreasing trend in the southeast and northwest, respectively; (3) the NASH coefficients of eight flood simulations ranged from 0.704 to 0.992 and the simulation accuracy has reached Grade B, indicating that the HEC–HMS model had good simulation results in the **ushui river basin, which could guide advance flood forecasting in this area.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data supporting this study's findings are available from the corresponding author, on request.
References
Aawar T, Khare D (2020) Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow through hydrological model using SWAT model: a case study of Afghanistan. Modeling Earth Syst Environ 6:1427–1437. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00759-0
Ait M’Barek S, Bouslihim Y, Rochdi A, Miftah A (2022) Effect of LULC data resolution on hydrological and erosion modeling using SWAT model. Modeling Earth Syst Environ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01537-w
Ali S, Cheema MJM, Waqas MM, Waseem M, Leta MK, Qamar MU, Awan UK, Bilal MMHU, Rahman (2021) Flood mitigation in the transboundary chenab river basin: a basin-wise approach from flood forecasting to management. Remote Sens 13:3916. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13193916
Aredo MR, Hatiye SD, **ale SM (2021) Impact of land use/land cover change on stream flow in the Shaya catchment of Ethiopia using the MIKE SHE model. Arab J Geosci 14:1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06447-2
Arowolo AO, Deng X, Olatunji OA, Obayelu AE (2018) Assessing changes in the value of ecosystem services in response to land-use/land-cover dynamics in Nigeria. Sci Total Environ 636:597–609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.277
Bahrami E, Salarijazi M, Mohammadrezapour O, Haghighat Jou P (2022) Evaluation of SCS model for flood characteristic prediction in an ungauged catchment considering effects of excess rainfall and base flow separation. J Earth Syst Sci 131:1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-021-01756-2
Barati R (2013) Application of excel solver for parameter estimation of the nonlinear Muskingum models. KSCE J Civ Eng 17:1139–1148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-013-0037-2
Cahyono C, Adidarma WK (2019) Influence analysis of peak rate factor in the flood events’ calibration process using HEC–HMS. Modeling Earth Syst Environ 5:1705–1722. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00625-8
Caletka M, Michalková MŠ, Karásek P, Fučík P (2020) Improvement of SCS-CN initial abstraction coefficient in the Czech Republic: a study of five catchments. Water. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12071964
Cheng Q, Zhou L, Wang T (2022) Assessment of ecosystem services value in Linghekou wetland based on landscape change. Environ Sustain Indic 15:100195. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2022.100195
Chiang S, Chang C-H, Chen W-B (2022) Comparison of rainfall-runoff simulation between support vector regression and HEC-HMS for a rural watershed in Taiwan. Water 14:191. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020191
Chu H, Wu W, Wang QJ, Nathan R, Wei J (2020) An ANN-based emulation modelling framework for flood inundation modelling: Application, challenges and future directions. Environ Modelling Softw 124:104587. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104587
Costanza R (2020) Valuing natural capital and ecosystem services toward the goals of efficiency, fairness, and sustainability. Ecosyst Serv 43:101096. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101096
Costanza R, d’Arge R, De Groot R, Farber S, Grasso M, Hannon B, Limburg K, Naeem S, O’neill RV, Paruelo J (1997) The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387:253–260. https://doi.org/10.1038/387253a0
Daneshvar F, Frankenberger JR, Bowling LC, Cherkauer KA, Moraes AGDL (2021) Development of strategy for SWAT hydrologic modeling in data-scarce regions of Peru. J Hydrol Eng 26:05021016. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002086
De Groot R, Brander L, Van Der Ploeg S, Costanza R, Bernard F, Braat L, Christie M, Crossman N, Ghermandi A, Hein L (2012) Global estimates of the value of ecosystems and their services in monetary units. Ecosyst Serv 1:50–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2012.07.005
Garee K, Chen X, Bao A, Wang Y, Meng F (2017) Hydrological modeling of the upper indus basin: a case study from a high-altitude glacierized catchment Hunza. Water 9:17. https://doi.org/10.3390/w9010017
Ghimire R, Ferreira S, Dorfman JH (2015) Flood-induced displacement and civil conflict. World Dev 66:614–628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.09.021
Guo W-D, Chen W-B, Yeh S-H, Chang C-H, Chen H (2021) Prediction of river stage using multistep-ahead machine learning techniques for a tidal river of Taiwan. Water 13:920. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070920
Hua L, Liao J, Chen H, Chen D, Shao G (2018) Assessment of ecological risks induced by land use and land cover changes in **amen City, China. Int J Sust Dev World 25:439–447. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504509.2017.1415235
Jonkman SN (2005) Global perspectives on loss of human life caused by floods. Nat Hazards 34:151–175. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-004-8891-3
Kang M, Yoo C (2020) Application of the SCS–CN method to the Hancheon basin on the volcanic Jeju Island. Korea Water 12:3350. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123350
Khaddor I, Achab M, Jbara AB, Alaoui AH (2019) Estimation of peak discharge in a poorly gauged catchment based on a specified hyetograph model and geomorphological parameters: case study for the 23–24 october 2008 flood KALAYA Basin, Tangier, Morocco. Hydrology. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6010010
Kiedrzyńska E, Kiedrzyński M, Zalewski M (2015) Sustainable floodplain management for flood prevention and water quality improvement. Nat Hazards 76:955–977. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1529-1
Koneti S, Sunkara SL, Roy PS (2018) Hydrological modeling with respect to impact of land-use and land-cover change on the runoff dynamics in Godavari River Basin using the HEC-HMS model. ISPRS Int J Geo Inf 7:206. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi7060206
Li J, Shi W (2015) Effects of alpine swamp wetland change on rainfall season runoff and flood characteristics in the headwater area of the Yangtze River. CATENA 127:116–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2014.12.020
Lianqing X, Fan Y, Changbing Y, Guanghui W, Wenqian L, **nlin H (2018) Hydrological simulation and uncertainty analysis using the improved TOPMODEL in the arid Manas River basin. China. Sci Rep. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-18982-8
Li** C, Yujun S, Saeed S (2018) Monitoring and predicting land use and land cover changes using remote sensing and GIS techniques—A case study of a hilly area, Jiangle China. PLoS ONE 13:e0200493. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200493
Rai R, Zhang Y, Paudel B, Acharya BK, Basnet L (2018) Land use and land cover dynamics and assessing the ecosystem service values in the trans-boundary Gandaki River Basin Central Himalayas. Sustainability 10:3052. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10093052
Rauf A-U, Ghumman AR (2018) Impact assessment of rainfall-runoff simulations on the flow duration curve of the Upper Indus River—A comparison of data-driven and hydrologic models. Water 10:876. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10070876
Revell N, Lashford C, Blackett M, Rubinato M (2021) Modelling the hydrological effects of woodland planting on infiltration and peak discharge using HEC-HMS. Water 13:3039. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13213039
Richard MJ, Lanhai L, Mindje KP, Mapendo M, Sikandar A, Adeline U (2021) Integrated geospatial analysis and hydrological modeling for peak flow and volume simulation in Rwanda. Water. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202926
Sannigrahi S, Bhatt S, Rahmat S, Paul SK, Sen S (2018) Estimating global ecosystem service values and its response to land surface dynamics during 1995–2015. J Environ Manage 223:115–131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.05.091
Shah M, Lone M (2022) Hydrological modeling to simulate stream flow in the Sindh Valley watershed, northwest Himalayas. Modeling Earth Syst Environ 8:2461–2470. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-021-01241-1
Song W, Deng X (2017) Land-use/land-cover change and ecosystem service provision in China. Sci Total Environ 576:705–719. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.07.078
Steenhuis TS, Winchell M, Rossing J, Zollweg JA, Walter MF (1995) SCS runoff equation revisited for variable-source runoff areas. J Irrig Drain Eng 121:234–238. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1995)121:3(234)
Stefanidis S, Stathis D (2013) Assessment of flood hazard based on natural and anthropogenic factors using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Nat Hazards 68:569–585. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0639-5
Tabari H (2020) Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Sci Rep 10:1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70816-2
Tariq MAUR, Van De Giesen N (2012) Floods and flood management in Pakistan. Phys Chem Earth, Parts a/b/c 47:11–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.08.014
Tassew BG, Belete MA, Miegel K (2019) Application of HEC-HMS model for flow simulation in the Lake Tana Basin: the case of Gilgel Abay catchment Upper Blue Nile Basin Ethiopia. Hydrology. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6010021
Tewolde MH, Smithers J (2006) Flood routing in ungauged catchments using Muskingum methods. Water Sa 32:379–388. https://doi.org/10.4314/wsa.v32i3.5263
Tikhamarine Y, Souag-Gamane D, Ahmed AN, Sammen SS, Kisi O, Huang YF, El-Shafie A (2020) Rainfall-runoff modelling using improved machine learning methods: Harris hawks optimizer vs. particle swarm optimization. J Hydrol 589:125133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125133
Trinh T, Kavvas ML, Ishida K, Ercan A, Chen ZQ, Anderson ML, Ho C, Nguyen T (2018) Integrating global land-cover and soil datasets to update saturated hydraulic conductivity parameterization in hydrologic modeling. Sci Total Environ. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.267
Vondou DA, Guenang GM, Djiotang TLA, Kamsu-Tamo PH (2021) Trends and interannual variability of extreme rainfall indices over Cameroon. Sustainability 13:6803. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126803
Wang Y, Zhang X, Peng P (2021) Spatio-temporal changes of land-use/land cover change and the effects on ecosystem service values in Derong County, China, from 1992–2018. Sustainability 13:827. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13020827
**ao Z, Liang Z, Li B, Hou B, Hu Y, Wang J (2019) New flood early warning and forecasting method based on similarity theory. J Hydrol Eng 24:04019023. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001811
**e G, Zhang C-X, Zhang L-M, Chen W, Li S (2015) Improvement of the evaluation method for ecosystem service value based on per unit area. J Nat Resour 30:1243. https://doi.org/10.11849/zrzyxb.2015.08.001
Zhai Y, Li W (2022) Evaluation and change analysis of ecosystem service value of china’s northeast tiger-leopard national park based on big data land use change. Comput Intell Neurosci. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/6270731
Zhang J, Zhang M, Song Y, Lai Y (2021) Hydrological simulation of the Jialing River Basin using the MIKE SHE model in changing climate. J Water Clim Change 12:2495–2514. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.253
Funding
This study has not received any funding from any organization.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Ren, DF., Cao, AH. Precipitation–runoff simulation in **ushui river basin using HEC–HMS hydrological model. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 9, 2845–2856 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01679-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01679-x