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Estimating relative immediacy of water-related challenges in Small Island Develo** States (SIDS) of the Pacific Ocean using AHP modeling

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Abstract

We outline nine water-related challenges faced by the Small Island Develo** States (SIDS) of the Pacific Ocean and map them with relevant sustainable development goals (SDGs). The challenges thus identified have been modeled using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to find out their priority weights. Based on this weightage, the relative immediacy of each of these water-related challenges have been calculated, and classified as high, medium, and low. The findings reveal that the most immediate challenge in terms of their relative immediacy weightage is the ‘rising sea level’. This is followed by ‘low water quality and its availability’, and ‘spread of water-borne and vector-borne diseases’. Other challenges analyzed in this study pertains to overfishing and exploitation of exclusive economic zones; soil erosion and coastal inundation; increase in incidences of natural disasters; coral reef damage and increased ocean acidification; climate refugee; and changing precipitation pattern. This study would be instrumental for policy makers and inter-governmental organizations in directing the resource allocation for adaptation and mitigation efforts in the small islands.

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Fig. 1

Source: United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). (Note: The land area and sea area are denoted in sq.km.)

Fig. 2

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Notes

  1. See Small Islands Develo** States, Available: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/sids/list.

  2. BPOA came into existence in the first global conference of SIDS held at Barbados in 1994. BPOA emphasized institutional development and capacity building in the SIDS through global participation.

  3. MSI was adopted in the second global conference of SIDS held at Mauritius in 2005. The outcome document of MSI was designed to further strengthen the BPOA framework in SIDS with a proactive approach.

  4. SAMOA Pathways was adopted in the third global conference of SIDS held at Samoa in 2014. The outcome document of SAMOA Pathways emphasized on partnerships and implementation within the UN framework.

  5. See https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/topics/sids.

  6. Cornelia Dean, “Rising Acidity Is Threatening Food Web of Oceans, Science Panel Says”, New York Times, January 30, 2009.

  7. See ‘New “SIDS Times” newsletter highlights Small Island Develo** States issues’, April 14, 2016, https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/sustainable/new-sids-times-newsletter.html.

  8. “BPOA (1994)—Barbados Program of Action”. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/conferences/bpoa1994; http://unohrlls.org/UserFiles/File/SIDS%20documents/Barbados.pdf.

  9. “International Conference on SIDS—1994, Barbados”. https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/LDCs/Pages/International_Conference_SIDS.aspx.

  10. “Third International Conference on Small Island Develo** States”. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sids2014.

  11. Climate Change Knowledge Portal, The World Bank https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/samoa/climate-data-projections.

  12. NASA, https://pmm.nasa.gov/resources/faq/how-does-climate-change-affect-precipitation.

  13. The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2016/02/drought-in-the-marshall-islands/.

  14. https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/288741/over-67,000-affected-by-drought-in-fiji.

  15. Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile, 2011, https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2018-10/wb_gfdrr_climate_change_country_profile_for_PNG.pdf.

  16. “How Climate change will affect Papua New Guinea”. https://www.businessadvantagepng.com/how-climate-change-will-affect-papua-new-guinea/, Accessed on December 10, 2018.

  17. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2146594-eight-low-lying-pacific-islands-swallowed-whole-by-rising-seas/.

  18. http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/countryprofile/home.cfm?page=country_profile&CCode=WSM&ThisTab=RiskOverview.

  19. “Freshwater Under Threat: Pacific Island”. United Nations Environment Programme, ISBN: 978-92-807-3132-3, Accessed on December 13, 2018.

  20. “How Fiji is affected by climate change”. https://cop23.com.fj/fiji-and-the-pacific/how-fiji-is-affected-by-climate-change/, Accessed on December 13, 2018.

  21. Pacific nations may face droughts, floods if El Niño develops later this year, REPORT from Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme, 24 May 2017, https://reliefweb.int/report/world/pacific-nations-may-face-droughts-floods-if-el-ni–o-develops-later-year.

  22. See https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/samoa/vulnerability.

  23. Ibid.

  24. “The future of climate refugees”. https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/the-future-of-climate-refugees.

  25. Climate and Country Health Profile, Kiribati, 2017, WHO, https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/260411/WHO-FWC-PHE-EPE-15.51-eng.pdf;jsessionid=D410499E458E5E2A4A2B12AC8C405B84?sequence=1.

  26. Ibid.

  27. Climate and Country Health Profile, Vanuatu, 2017, WHO, https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/260416/WHO-FWC-PHE-EPE-15.53-eng.pdf?sequence=1.

  28. Ibid.

  29. Matthew Taylor, Climate change ‘will create World’s biggest refugee crisis, The Guardian, November 2, 2017.

  30. “A tiny island prepares the world for a climate refugee crisis”. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-15/a-tiny-island-prepares-the-world-for-a-climate-refugee-crisis, Accessed on November 12, 2018.

  31. “Fiji prepares for climate refugees”. https://www.euronews.com/2017/11/17/fiji-prepares-for-climate-refugees, Accessed on November 12, 2018.

  32. “Even remote coral reefs aren’t spared from devastation”. https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/05/samoan-islands-upolu-coral-reef-bleaching-climate-change-science-spd/. Accessed on December 14, 2018.

  33. “Kiribati at risk by ocean acidification”. https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/177501/kiribati-at-risk-by-ocean-acidification. Accessed on November 28, 2018.

  34. https://ocean.si.edu/ocean-life/invertebrates/ocean-acidification.

  35. “Overfishing in the Pacific Ocean”. Available: https://wordpress.clarku.edu/id125-envsus/2017/04/19/overfishing-in-the-pacfic-ocean/.

  36. See Palau to test out drones in maritime surveillance, May 25, 2013, https://www.radionz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/212426/palau-to-test-out-drones-in-maritime-surveillance.

  37. See https://www.internationalnewsandviews.com/indias-pacific-islands-diplomacy-can-redefine-indo-pacific-architecture/, November 13, 2018.

  38. Ibid.

  39. Ibid.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to FORE School of Management for infrastructural support provided to complete this work. This work is a part of the Seed Money Project funded by FORE School of Management, New Delhi, India, granted to the first author of this paper.

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  1. FORE School of Management, B-18, Qutab Institutional Area, New Delhi, India

    Faisal Ahmed & Vinaytosh Mishra

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Ahmed, F., Mishra, V. Estimating relative immediacy of water-related challenges in Small Island Develo** States (SIDS) of the Pacific Ocean using AHP modeling. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 6, 201–214 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-019-00671-2

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