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Nomogram for predicting the 12-year risk of ADL disability among older adults

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Abstract

Objectives

Previous studies have identified plenty of risk factors for activities of daily living (ADL). However, there are no reliable and widely available prediction models for ADL disability up to now. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the 12-year risk of ADL disability in older adults.

Methods

Data from 4,809 participants in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and 18,620 participants in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) were used as training set and validation set, respectively. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and Cox regression to screen the predictors and develop the nomogram. The P value, concordance index (C-index), integrated area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC) and calibration curves were used to validate the nomogram.

Results

During 12 years, 30.0% (n = 1,441) participants developed ADL disability in the training set, while the corresponding percentages were 18.5% in the validation set (n = 3,445). After screening, 13 variables were contained in the final prediction model. In ADL nomogram, the C-index and AUC were 0.744 ± 0.013 and 0.793 in internal valid ation, respectively, while in external validation, the C-index and AUC were 0.755 ± 0.009 and 0.796.

Conclusions

This study developed and validated a nomogram that predicts functional disability. The application of the predictive model could have important implications for patient prognosis and health care.

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Acknowledgements

This study used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) and the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The authors appreciate the ELSA and SHARE consortium for making the survey and making it available online freely.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Public Health College, Qingdao University, NO. 308 Ningxia Road, Qingdao, 266071, Shandong Province, China

    Weifeng Qi & Yili Wu

  2. Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weifang, China

    Zhenhua Yin

  3. Department of Neurology, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China

    Yan** Sun

  4. Department of Nursing, Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University, Qingdao, China

    Lili Wei

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  1. Weifeng Qi
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Contributions

YW, ZY, and WQ conceptualized and designed this work. WQ and YW acquired, analyzed, and interpreted the data. ZY, YS, LW explained the results. YW, WQ, ZY, YS, and LW prepared the manuscript andfigures.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yili Wu.

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All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki Declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards.

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Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.

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Qi, W., Yin, Z., Sun, Y. et al. Nomogram for predicting the 12-year risk of ADL disability among older adults. Aging Clin Exp Res 34, 1583–1591 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40520-022-02105-z

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