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Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico

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Abstract

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922–2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Alejandro Morales, Alfredo González Zamora, and Juan Pablo Ruíz Cordova for their help. We also thank to Dr. Abraham Granados for the data and information provided. And a special thanks to Dr. Mark Olson for his support and advice. The first author thanks the Postgraduate School of Geography of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México and CONACyT-México (No. 209767) for the received grants. Also, we thank the anonymous reviewers for their critical observations and thoughtful contributions for improving this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Posgrado en Geografía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Mexico, D.F., Mexico

    Manuel Esperón-Rodríguez

  2. Laboratorio de Ecofisiología Tropical, Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, 04510, Mexico, D.F., Mexico

    Manuel Esperón-Rodríguez, Martín Bonifacio-Bautista & Víctor L. Barradas

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  1. Manuel Esperón-Rodríguez
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  3. Víctor L. Barradas
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Correspondence to Víctor L. Barradas.

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Esperón-Rodríguez, M., Bonifacio-Bautista, M. & Barradas, V.L. Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico. Ambio 45, 146–160 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-015-0690-4

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