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Evaluation of the predictions skills and uncertainty of a karst model using short calibration data sets at an Apulian cave (Italy)

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Abstract

The freshwater resource in karst is subjected to both sea level rise and an increasing pressure caused by the high-water demand. Therefore, develo** an understanding of the hydrogeological dynamics of the karst aquifer can be a useful tool for improving protection and management actions. Vora Bosco cave (Apulia, Southern Italy) was instrumented with a multi-parameter probe for groundwater level measurements, aimed at exploring the system behavior within the cave recharge area. To characterize and quantify the natural recharge and discharge behavior of the system, a simple reservoir model was developed, initially also with the intention of predicting groundwater dynamics. Based on the original time-series of water level observations, different calibration datasets were established using different split-sample and bootstrap** approaches, and a regional sensitivity analysis was executed. Furthermore, in addition to the original observation time-series, a 3-month extension was used as a model testing period. Using these analyses, the parameters identifiability and the predictions robustness for the model testing period were evaluated. Results reveal that while the calibration on the whole dataset, as well as the bootstrap** approaches, lead to better performances in the calibration and validation period of the original time-series, and to a higher model precision with smaller uncertainty ranges. their performance in the model testing period becomes very poor and the observed water level data no longer plots within the uncertainty bands. Based on this extensive analysis, the model is finally rejected. Our study therefore also confirms the importance of model validation, especially when only a short time-series of observations are available.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

Support to T.L. and A.H. was provided by the Emmy Noether Programme of the German Research Foundation (DFG; grant no. HA 8113/1-1; project “Global Assessment of Water Stress in Karst Regions in a Changing World”). The work by I.S. Liso and M. Parise was partly funded through the Protocollo d’intesa con Regione Puglia per l’attuazione dell’art. 45 “Interventi per esplorazione dei fenomeni carsici,” comma 1 della L.R. n. 45 del 30/12/2013. We also thank the cavers Mariangela Martellotta and Francesco De Salve for cave survey and support during the work within the karst system.

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  1. Chair of Hydrological Modeling and Water Resources, University of Freiburg, 79098, Freiburg, Germany

    T. Leins & A. Hartmann

  2. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy

    I. S. Liso & M. Parise

  3. Institute of Groundwater Management, Technische Universität Dresden, 01069, Dresden, Germany

    T. Leins & A. Hartmann

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TL and AH developed the model, and contributed to writing the manuscript; ISL and MP provided data, performed initial analyses, and contributed to writing the manuscript; MP and AH supervised the work. All authors reviewed the manuscript.

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Leins, T., Liso, I.S., Parise, M. et al. Evaluation of the predictions skills and uncertainty of a karst model using short calibration data sets at an Apulian cave (Italy). Environ Earth Sci 82, 351 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-023-10984-2

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