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Evaluation of regional drought disaster prevention ability and obstacle analysis

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Abstract

The frequent occurrence of drought disasters is an important factor restricting regional agricultural and economic development. The existing literature has conducted extensive research on drought risk, drought vulnerability, and drought losses, while less research has been done on the evaluation of drought resistance. This paper establishes the evaluation index system of drought disaster defense ability from five aspects: monitoring and early warning ability, disaster information communication ability, engineering defense ability, economic defense ability, and social defense ability. For the subjective evaluation model that relies too much on expert experience and the objective weighting method that cannot overcome the limitations of random errors of samples, this study builds an evaluation model for regional drought defense capability based on the combined weighting-gray cloud method. In addition, a barrier model was used to identify key factors affecting the resilience of regional agriculture to drought. This study uses Henan Province in China as an example to verify the validity of the model. The results show that the drought disaster defense capability evaluation system established in this paper can better reflect the regional agricultural drought defense capability, and that the evaluation process is objective and scientific. The obstacle analysis shows that the cultivated land area and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) are the most important obstacle factors, of which the average obstacle degree of cultivated land area is 7.428% and the average obstacle degree of per capita GDP is 7.239%. The research results can provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of agricultural drought in local government departments. The government should coordinate the distribution of agricultural water resources and increase the construction of water infrastructure according to the area of arable land.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge with gratitude the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71271086 and No. 51979106) and the Postgraduate Innovative Project of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (No. YK2020-29). This study would not have been possible without their financial support.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Mathematics and Statistics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China

    Dang Luo

  2. School of Management, Shengda University, Zhengzhou, 451191, China

    Huihui Hao

  3. School of Management and Economics, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450046, China

    Hanyu Zhu

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  1. Dang Luo
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Correspondence to Huihui Hao.

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Luo, D., Hao, H. & Zhu, H. Evaluation of regional drought disaster prevention ability and obstacle analysis. Arab J Geosci 16, 150 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-11126-x

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