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A probability-based risk assessment of roof strata weighting in longwall panels

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Abstract

Weighting of the roof strata in a longwall panel poses serious stability concerns at the working face. Therefore, it is essential to estimate weighting in terms of its interval. Furthermore, difficulty arises during the prediction of roof weighting as rock mass contains inherent uncertainties. In order to cater to this need, probabilistic analysis has been employed. The article aims to decipher the suitability of Monte Carlo simulation technique for the assessment of caving of roof strata. In the current study, firstly, regression models have been developed to estimate periodic weighting interval and first significant main roof weighting interval using data from thirty (30) longwall panels in India. The regression models were then used as deterministic mathematical models for Monte Carlo simulation. It has been observed that the Monte Carlo simulation technique is an acceptable means to evaluate the uncertainties arising from varying geo-mining conditions. In addition to it, sensitivity analysis results exhibited that the tensile strength and unit weight of the main roof is the key factor that governs the interval and severity of the periodic weighting and the first significant main roof weighting.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the various managements of ECL and SCCL mines from where data pertaining to the study could be obtained. The article is a part of the Ph.D. work of the first author. Therefore, the findings and views that have been expressed are the opinions of the authors and not necessarily of the organization they serve.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mining Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad, 826004, Jharkhand, India

    Sunny Murmu & Gnananandh Budi

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  1. Sunny Murmu
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  2. Gnananandh Budi
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Correspondence to Sunny Murmu.

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Responsible Editor: Zeynal Abiddin Erguler

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Murmu, S., Budi, G. A probability-based risk assessment of roof strata weighting in longwall panels. Arab J Geosci 14, 362 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-06637-y

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