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Modeling Floodplain Inundation, Circulation, and Residence Time Under Changing Tide and Sea Levels

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Abstract

Sea-level rise will have unknown effects on the structure and function of valuable tidal freshwater floodplains. One reason for this knowledge gap is our poor constraint on the physical controls on complex floodplain inundation and circulation processes. Here, a high-resolution light detection and ranging (lidar) digital elevation model (DEM) is applied to fine-scale numerical simulations of flow and tracer exchange in a 0.43 km2 river floodplain in Southeast Florida, USA. The sequence of inundation and associated circulation patterns is assessed at 1-h intervals of the rising and falling tide in the context of floodplain geomorphic structure. The depth averaged velocity vectors show concomitant flow divergence and convergence over small spatial scales, and this complexity arises from the submergence and emergence of subtle floodplain topography over the tidal cycle. Tracer exchange and associated residence times highlight the controls of floodplain topography on water storage at the end of the ebb cycle, or during low river stages. The effects of a 0.2 m and 0.5 m increase in mean sea level on inundation extent and water retention times were also assessed. Percent change in inundated area and associated e-folding times reveal greater lateral inundation extent and a 20% increase in water retention times with up to a 0.5 m increase in mean sea level. This work reveals the topographic influence on how, when, and where sea level rise will impact the freshwater floodplain through increased hydro period and saltwater intrusion, and the importance of evaluating floodplain restoration benefits in the context of fine-scale surface flow processes and sea-level rise.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the South Florida Water Management District for providing data used in this study. We also thank Virginia Shervette of University of South Carolina Aiken and anonymous reviewers for their insights and suggestions. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. All data presented in this manuscript are publically available through doi:https://doi.org/10.17632/ytcnd437gg.1.

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  1. Department of Biology and Geology, University of South Carolina Aiken, Aiken, SC, 29801, USA

    Jessica C. Sullivan & Ronald A. Willis

  2. Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, US EPA, Gulf Breeze, FL, 32561, USA

    Yongshan Wan

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  1. Jessica C. Sullivan
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Sullivan, J.C., Wan, Y. & Willis, R.A. Modeling Floodplain Inundation, Circulation, and Residence Time Under Changing Tide and Sea Levels. Estuaries and Coasts 43, 693–707 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-020-00709-0

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