Abstract
Extreme waves may considerably impact crucial coastal and marine engineering structures. The First Scientific Assessment Report on Ocean and Climate Change of China and The Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change of China were published in 2020 and 2022, respectively. However, no concrete results on the long-term trends in wave changes in China have been obtained. In this study, long-term trends in extreme wave elements over the past 55 years were investigated using wave data from five in situ observation sites (i.e., Lao Hu Tan, Cheng Shan Tou, Ri Zhao, Nan Ji, Wei Zhou) along the coast of China. The five stations showed different trends in wave height. Results show a general downward trend in wave heights at the LHT and CST stations, reaching −0.78 and −1.44 cm/a, respectively, in summer at middle and high latitudes. NJI stations at middle-to-low latitudes are influenced by the winter monsoon and summer tropical cyclones, showing a substantial increase in extreme wave heights (0.7 cm/a in winter and 2.68 cm/a in summer). The cumulative duration of H1/10 ⩾ 3 m at NJI and RZH has grown since 1990.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aarnes OJ, Abdalla S, Bidlot JR, Breivik Ø (2015) Marine wind and wave height trends at different ERA-Interim forecast ranges. Journal of Climate Journal of Climate: 819–837. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00470.1
Bacon S, Carter DJT (1993) A connection between mean wave height and atmospheric pressure gradient in the North Atlantic. Int. J. Climatol 13: 423–436. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370130406
Bouws E, Jannink D, Komen GJ (1996) The increasing wave height in the North Atlantic Ocean. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 77: 2275–2277. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<2275:TIWHIT>2.0.CO;2
Caires S, Sterl A (2005) 100-year return value estimates for ocean wind speed and significant wave height from the ERA-40 data. Journal of Climate 18: 1032–1048. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3312.1
Carter DJT, Draper L (1988) Has the north-east Atlantic become rougher? Nature 332: 494–494. https://doi.org/10.1038/332494a0
Chen W, Yang S, Huang RH (2005) Relationship between stationary planetary wave activity and the East Asian winter monsoon. J. Geophys. Res. 110: 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005669
Chien H, Cheng HY, Chiou MD (2014) Wave climate variability of Taiwan waters. J Oceanogr 70: 133–152. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-014-0218-8
Dan S, Stive MJF, Walstra DJR, Panin N (2009) Wave climate, coastal sediment budget and shoreline changes for the Danube Delta. Marine Geology 262: 39–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2009.03.003
Defne Z, Haas KA, Fritz HM (2009) Wave power potential along the Atlantic coast of the southeastern USA. Renewable Energy 34: 2197–2205. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.02.019
Feng X, Yang D, Yin B, Li M (2018) The change and trend of the typhoon waves in Zhejaing and Fujian coastal areas of China. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica 49: 233–241
Forthofer RN, Lehnen RG (1981) Rank correlation methods, in: Public Program Analysis. Springer, Boston, 146–163. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-6683-6_9
Guillou N (2020) Estimating wave energy flux from significant wave height and peak period. Renewable Energy 155: 1383–1393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.03.124
He H, Song J, Bai Y, Xu Y, Wang J, Bi F (2018) Climate and extrema of ocean waves in the East China Sea. Sci. China Earth Sci. 61: 980–994. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-017-9156-7
He H, Xu Y (2016) Wind-wave hindcast in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea from the year 1988 to 2002. Acta Oceanol. Sin. 35: 46–53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-015-0786-5
Hithin NK, Kumar VS, Shanas PR (2015) Trends of wave height and period in the Central Arabian Sea from 1996 to 2012: A study based on satellite altimeter data. Ocean Engineering 108: 416–425. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.08.024
Huang R, Zhou L, Chen W (2003) The progresses of recent studies on the variabilities of the East Asian monsoon and their causes. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 20: 55–69. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03342050
Izaguirre C, Mendez FJ, Espejo A, Losada IJ, Reguero BG (2013) Extreme wave climate changes in Central-South America. Climatic Change 119: 277–290. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0712-9
Jiang H, Yang Z (2022) A revisit of global wind-sea and swell climate and variability using multiplatform altimeters. Remote Sensing of Environment 271: 112922. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2022.112922
Kumar VS, Joseph J, Amrutha MM, Jena BK, Sivakholundu KM, Dubhashi KK (2018) Seasonal and interannual changes of significant wave height in shelf seas around India during 1998–2012 based on wave hindcast. Ocean Engineering 151: 127–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.01.022
Li J, Pan S, Chen Y, Fan YM, Pan Y (2018) Numerical estimation of extreme waves and surges over the northwest Pacific Ocean. Ocean Engineering 153: 225–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.01.076
Liang B, Fan F, Liu F, Gao S, Zuo H (2014) 22-year wave energy hindcast for the China East adjacent seas. Renewable Energy 71: 200–207. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.05.027
Liu S, Fan W, Wang H, Liu K, Yue X (2017) Analysis of observational wave characteristics of automatic wave measuring instruments at China coastal stations. Haiyang Tongbao 36: 618–630
Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13: 245. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
Pomaro A, Cavaleri L, Lionello P (2017) Climatology and trends of the Adriatic Sea wind waves: analysis of a 37-year long instrumental data set. Int. J. Climatol 37: 4237–4250. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5066
Ruggiero P, Buijsman M, Kaminsky GM, Gelfenbaum G (2010) Modeling the effects of wave climate and sediment supply variability on large-scale shoreline change. Marine Geology 273: 127–140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.margeo.2010.02.008
Sasaki W (2012) Changes in wave energy resources around Japan: Changes in wave energy around Japan. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39: L23702. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL053845
Sasaki W (2014) Changes in the North Pacific wave climate since the mid-1990s: Recent North Pacific wave climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41: 7854–7860. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061590
Saulnier JB, Maisondieu C, Ashton I, Smith GH (2012) Refined sea state analysis from an array of four identical directional buoys deployed off the Northern Cornish coast (UK). Applied Ocean Research 37: 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apor.2012.02.001
Semedo A, Sušelj K, Rutgersson A, Sterl A (2011) A global view on the wind sea and swell climate and variability from ERA-40. Journal of Climate 24: 1461–1479. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3718.1
Shi J, Zheng J, Zhang C, Joly A, Zhang W, Xu P, Sui T, Chen T (2019) A 39-year high resolution wave hindcast for the Chinese coast: Model validation and wave climate analysis. Ocean Engineering 183: 224–235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2019.04.084
Timmermans BW, Gommenginger CP, Dodet G, Bidlot JR (2020) Global wave height trends and variability from new multimission satellite altimeter products, reanalyses, and wave buoys. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47: 20–40. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086880
Wang H, Fu D, Liu D, **ao X, He X, Liu B (2021) Analysis and prediction of significant wave height in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 126. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC017144
Wang JJ, Li B, Gao Z, Wang JK (2019) Comparison of ECMWF significant wave height forecasts in the China Sea with buoy data. Weather and Forecasting 34: 1693–1704. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-19-0043.1
Wang P, Yang Y, Xue D, Qu Y, Tang J, Leung LR, Liao H (2023) Increasing compound hazards of tropical cyclones and heatwaves over Southeastern coast of China under climate warming. Journal of Climate 36: 2243–2257. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0279.1
Wen C, Graf HF, Ronghui H (2000) The interannual variability of East Asian Winter Monsoon and its relation to the summer monsoon. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 17: 48–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-000-0042-5
Wu L, Wang XL, Feng Y (2014) Historical wave height trends in the South and East China Seas, 1911–2010. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 119: 4399–4409. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JC010087
Wu S, Liu C, Chen X (2015) Offshore wave energy resource assessment in the East China Sea. Renewable Energy 76: 628–636. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2014.11.054
Yaakob O, Hashim FE, Mohd Omar K, Md Din AH, Koh KK (2016) Satellite-based wave data and wave energy resource assessment for South China Sea. Renewable Energy 88: 359–371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.11.039
Young IR (1999) Seasonal variability of the global ocean wind and wave climate. International Journal of Climatology 19: 931–950. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199907)19:9<931::AIDJOC412>3.0.CO;2-O
Young IR, Ribal A (2019) Multiplatform evaluation of global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science 364: 548–552. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav9527
Young IR, Zieger S, Babanin AV (2011) Global trends in wind speed and wave height. Science 332: 451–455. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1197219
Zhai F, Li P, Song D (2019) Interannual wave height variability in the Yellow Sea. J Oceanogr 75: 235–256. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-018-0496-7
Zheng C, Pan J, Tan Y, Gao Z, Rui Z, Chen C (2015) The seasonal variations in the significant wave height and sea surface wind speed of the China’s seas. Acta Oceanol. Sin. 34: 58–64. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13131-015-0738-0
Zheng C, Zhang R, Shi W, Li X, Chen X (2017) Trends in significant wave height and surface wind speed in the China Seas between 1988 and 2011. J. Ocean Univ. China 16: 717–726. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-017-3213-z
Funding
Funding Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52271271), National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2022YFE0104500), and Major Science and Technology Projects of the Ministry of Water Resources (No. SKS-2022025).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interest The authors have no competing interests to declare that are relevant to the content of this article.
Additional information
Article Highlights
• Long-term trends in 55 years of extreme waves offshore China were analysed based on observational data.
• The influence of wind and atmospheric circulation systems on long-term trends in waves were explored.
• Statistics on the number of occurrences and duration of catastrophic waves at five stations.
• The wave height monthly maximum distribution was analysed using the generalized extreme value (GEV) model.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Cao, L., Liu, S., Zeng, J. et al. Long-Term Trends of Extreme Waves Based on Observations from Five Stations in China. J. Marine. Sci. Appl. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11804-024-00436-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11804-024-00436-z