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Variability of Sea Ice from 2008 to 2019 in the Bohai and Northern Huanghai Sea, China and the Relationship with Climatic Factors

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Abstract

Sea ice has important effect on the marine ecosystem and people living in the surrounding regions in winter. However, the understanding on changes of sea ice in the Bohai and northern Huanghai Sea (BNHS), China is still limited. Based on the images from Visible and InfraRed Radiometer (VIRR) onboard Chinese second generation polar-orbit meteorological series satellites FY-3A/B/C, the sea ice areas in the BNHS were extracted from December 2008 to March 2019, the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of sea ice and the relationship between sea ice area and climatic factors were analyzed, then a preliminary sea ice forecast model based on the climatic factors was developed. The results showed that sea ice area in the BNHS in each December was relatively small and rather high sea ice occurrence probability appeared in the offshore areas in Liaodong Bay and northern Huanghai Sea. The sea ice area in January or February each year was the largest, and sea ice occurred in most of areas in Liaodong Bay and northern Huanghai Sea with rather high probability and in some areas in Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay with relatively high probability. However, the sea ice area in each March was the smallest, and sea ice was even melted completely occasionally, hence with relatively low occurrence probability in Liaodong Bay. As for the inter-annual variability of sea ice in the BNHS during the research period, the sea ice area was largest in winter 2010/11 and smallest in winter 2014/15, and annual sea ice area presented a decreasing trend. The atmospheric temperature, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), Asia polar vortex (APV), Asian monsoon circulation (AMC) and Eurasian monsoon circulation (EMC) were very important climatic factors for sea ice formation and they had significant correlations with sea ice area. Therefore, a preliminary sea ice forecast model was constructed by using eight climatic factors including western Pacific subtropical high area index (WPSHAI), western Pacific subtropical high intensity index (WPSHII), western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position index (WPSHNBPI), Asia polar vortex area index (APVAI), Asian zonal circulation index (AZCI), Asian meridional circulation index (AMCI), Eurasian zonal circulation index (EZCI) and mean minimum atmospheric temperature (MMAT). The model was confirmed to have a robust forecast effect by using F-test and validated sample data. The results are useful for monitoring sea ice with remote sensed data and forecasting sea ice conditions by climatic indices.

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Acknowledgements

The study is supported by the National Research and Development Program of China (Nos. 2020YFA0608203 and 2016YFC1402003), the FengYun Application Pioneering Project of China Meteorological Administration (No. FY-APP2021) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42001362), and the NUIST-Reading Research Institute Pump-Priming Application.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Remote Sensing and Geomatics Engineering, Nan**g University of Information Science and Technology, Nan**g, 210044, China

    Shaoqi Gong, Wenqian Chen & Qingyun Yan

  2. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Bei**g, 100081, China

    Shaoqi Gong & Cunjie Zhang

  3. Department of Geography and Environment Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AB, UK

    Hong Yang

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  1. Shaoqi Gong
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  2. Wenqian Chen
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  3. Cunjie Zhang
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  4. Qingyun Yan
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  5. Hong Yang
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Correspondence to Cunjie Zhang or Hong Yang.

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Gong, S., Chen, W., Zhang, C. et al. Variability of Sea Ice from 2008 to 2019 in the Bohai and Northern Huanghai Sea, China and the Relationship with Climatic Factors. J. Ocean Univ. China 21, 1189–1197 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11802-022-4948-8

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