Abstract
Comprehending the spatial–temporal characteristics, contributions, and evolution of driving factors in agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at a macro level is pivotal in pursuing temperature control objectives and achieving China’s strategic goals related to carbon peak and carbon neutrality. This study employs the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emissions coefficient method to comprehensively evaluate agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions at the provincial level. Subsequently, the contributions and spatial–temporal evolution of six driving factors derived from the Kaya identity were quantitatively explored using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR) methods. The results revealed that the distribution of agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions is shifting from the central provinces to the northwest regions. Moreover, the dominant driving factors of agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions were primarily economic factor (EDL) with positive impact (cumulative promotion is 2939.61 million metric tons (Mt)), alongside agricultural production efficiency factor (EI) with negative impact (cumulative reduction is 2208.98 Mt). Influence of EDL diminished in the eastern coastal regions but significantly impacted underdeveloped regions such as the northwest and southwest. In the eastern coastal regions, EI gradually became the absolute dominant driver, demonstrating a rapid reduction effect. Additionally, a declining birth rate and rural-to-urban population migration have significantly amplified the driving effects of the population factor (RP) at a national scale. These findings, in conjunction with the disparities in geographic and socioeconomic development among provinces, can serve as a guiding framework for the development of a region-specific roadmap aimed at reducing agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions.
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-024-32359-1/MediaObjects/11356_2024_32359_Fig1_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-024-32359-1/MediaObjects/11356_2024_32359_Fig2_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-024-32359-1/MediaObjects/11356_2024_32359_Fig3_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-024-32359-1/MediaObjects/11356_2024_32359_Fig4_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-024-32359-1/MediaObjects/11356_2024_32359_Fig5_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-024-32359-1/MediaObjects/11356_2024_32359_Fig6_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-024-32359-1/MediaObjects/11356_2024_32359_Fig7_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-024-32359-1/MediaObjects/11356_2024_32359_Fig8_HTML.png)
![](http://media.springernature.com/m312/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1007%2Fs11356-024-32359-1/MediaObjects/11356_2024_32359_Fig9_HTML.png)
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
References
Akaike H (1981) Likelihood of a model and information criteria. J Econom 16(1):3–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(81)90071-3
Alajmi RG (2021) Factors that impact greenhouse gas emissions in Saudi Arabia: decomposition analysis using LMDI. Energy Policy 156:112454. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112454
Anselin L (1995) Local indicators of spatial association—LISA. Geogr Anal 27(2):93–115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x
Brunsdon C, Fotheringham AS, Charlton ME (1996) Geographically weighted regression: a method for exploring spatial nonstationarity. Geogr Anal 28(4):281–298. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1996.tb00936.x
Cambaliza M, Shepson P, Caulton D, Stirm B, Samarov D, Gurney K, Turnbull J, Davis K, Possolo A, Karion A (2014) Assessment of uncertainties of an aircraft-based mass balance approach for quantifying urban greenhouse gas emissions. Atmos Chem Phys 14(17):9029–9050. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9029-2014
Caro D, Davis SJ, Bastianoni S, Caldeira K (2014) Global and regional trends in greenhouse gas emissions from livestock. Clim Change 126:203–216. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1197-x
Chen Y, Li M, Su K, Li X (2019) Spatial-temporal characteristics of the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions: empirical evidence from Fujian, China. Energies 12(16). https://doi.org/10.3390/en12163102.
Crippa M, Solazzo E, Guizzardi D, Monforti-Ferrario F, Tubiello FN, Leip A (2021) Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Nature Food 2(3):198–209. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-021-00225-9
Deng L, Liu S, Kim DG, Peng C, Sweeney S, Shangguan Z (2017) Past and future carbon sequestration benefits of China’s grain for green program. Glob Environ Chang 47:13–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.09.006
Dong H, Li YE, Tao X, Peng X, Li N, Zhu Z (2008) China greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural activities and its mitigation strategy. Trans Chin Soc Agric Eng 24(10):269–273 ((in Chinese))
Dong L, Miao G, Wen W (2021) China’s carbon neutrality policy: objectives, impacts and paths. East Asian Policy 13(01):5–18. https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793930521000015
Fotheringham AS, Crespo R, Yao J (2015) Geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR). Geogr Anal 47(4):431–452. https://doi.org/10.1111/gean.12071
Fotheringham AS, Brunsdon C, Charlton M (2003) Geographically weighted regression: the analysis of spatially varying relationships. John Wiley & Sons
Han J, Qu J, Maraseni TN, Xu L, Zeng J, Li H (2021) A critical assessment of provincial-level variation in agricultural GHG emissions in China. J Environ Manag 296:113190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113190
IPCC (2019) Refinement to the 2006 IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland
IPCC (2021) Climate change 2021: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, In press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.
Jiang J, Ye B, **e D, Tang J (2017) Provincial-level carbon emission drivers and emission reduction strategies in China: combining multi-layer LMDI decomposition with hierarchical clustering. J Clean Prod 169:178–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.189
Johnson JM-F, Franzluebbers AJ, Weyers SL, Reicosky DC (2007) Agricultural opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Environ Pollut 150(1):107–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envpol.2007.06.030
Kaya Y (1989) Impact of carbon dioxide emission control on GNP growth: interpretation of proposed scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Response Strategies Working Group, May
Kupfer JA, Farris CA (2007) Incorporating spatial non-stationarity of regression coefficients into predictive vegetation models. Landsc Ecol 22:837–852. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-006-9058-2
Li Y, Du W, Huisingh D (2017) Challenges in develo** an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions of Chinese cities: a case study of Bei**g. J Clean Prod 161:1051–1063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.06.072
Li W, Ji Z, Dong F (2022) Spatio-temporal evolution relationships between provincial CO2 emissions and driving factors using geographically and temporally weighted regression model. Sustain Cities Soc 81:103836. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.103836
Li N, Wei C, Zhang H, Cai C, Song M, Miao J (2020) Drivers of the national and regional crop production-derived greenhouse gas emissions in China. J Clean Prod 257. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120503.
Liang X, Min F, **ao Y, Yao J (2022) Temporal-spatial characteristics of energy-based carbon dioxide emissions and driving factors during 2004–2019, China. Energy 261. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124965
Liu BJ, Zhang L, Lu F, Wang XK, Liu WW, Zheng H, Meng L, OuYang ZY (2016) Greenhouse gas emissions and net carbon sequestration of “Grain for Green” program in China. Ying Yong Sheng tai xue bao = J Appl Ecol 27(6):1693–1707. https://doi.org/10.13287/j.1001-9332.201606.004
Liu Y, Zou L, Wang Y (2020) Spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural eco-efficiency in China in recent 40 years. Land Use Policy 97:104794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104794
Liu B, Guan Y, Shan Y, Cui C, Hubacek K (2023) Emission growth and drivers in Mainland Southeast Asian countries. J Environ Manag 329:117034. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.117034
Louis MES, Hess JJ (2008) Climate change: impacts on and implications for global health. Am J Prev Med 35(5):527–538. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.023
Mach KJ, Mastrandrea MD, Bilir TE, Field CB (2016) Understanding and responding to danger from climate change: the role of key risks in the IPCC AR5. Clim Chang 136:427–444. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1645-x
Moran PA (1950) Notes on continuous stochastic phenomena. Biometrika 37(1/2):17–23. https://doi.org/10.2307/2332142
Nayak D, Saetnan E, Cheng K, Wang W, Koslowski F, Cheng YF, Zhu WY, Wang JK, Liu JX, Moran D (2015) Management opportunities to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from Chinese agriculture. Agr Ecosyst Environ 209:108–124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.04.035
Nguyen CP, Le T-H, Schinckus C, Su TD (2021) Determinants of agricultural emissions: panel data evidence from a global sample. Environ Dev Econ 26(2):109–130. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1355770X20000315
Norse D (2012) Low carbon agriculture: objectives and policy pathways. Environ Dev 1(1):25–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2011.12.004
Qiao D, Luo Y, Chu Y, Zhang H, Zhao F (2023) Decomposition of agriculture-related non-CO2 greenhouse gas emission in Chengdu: 1995–2020. J Clean Prod 140125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140125
Ridzuan NHAM, Marwan NF, Khalid N, Ali MH, Tseng ML (2020) Effects of agriculture, renewable energy, and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions: evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve. Resour Conserv Recycl 160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104879
Shi C, Jiang Z-H, Chen W-L, Li L (2018) Changes in temperature extremes over China under 1.5 C and 2 C global warming targets. Adv Clim Chang Res 9(2):120–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.11.003
Singh H, Prasad PV, Northup BK, Ciampitti IA, Rice CW (2023) Strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural ecosystems. In Global agricultural production: resilience to climate change, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp 409–440
Some S, Roy J, Ghose A (2019) Non-CO2 emission from cropland based agricultural activities in India: a decomposition analysis and policy link. J Clean Prod 225:637–646. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.017
Tian Y, Zhang J, He YY (2014) Research on spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factor of agricultural carbon emissions in China. J Integr Agric 13(6):1393–1403. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(13)60624-3
Wang R, Feng Y (2020) Research on China’s agricultural carbon emission efficiency evaluation and regional differentiation based on DEA and Theil models. Int J Environ Sci Technol 18(6):1453–1464. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-020-02903-w
Wang W, Koslowski F, Nayak DR, Smith P, Saetnan E, Ju X, Guo L, Han G, de Perthuis C, Lin E (2014) Greenhouse gas mitigation in Chinese agriculture: distinguishing technical and economic potentials. Glob Environ Chang 26:53–62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.03.008
Wang ZB, Chen J, Mao S, Han Y, Chen F, Zhang L, Li Y, Li C (2017) Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions of chemical fertilizer types in China’s crop production. J Clean Prod 141:1267–1274. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.09.120
Wei Y, Zhang X, Xu M, Chang Y (2023) Greenhouse gas emissions of meat products in China: a provincial-level quantification. Resour Conserv Recycl 190:106843. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106843
**ong C, Yang D, **a F, Huo J (2016) Changes in agricultural carbon emissions and factors that influence agricultural carbon emissions based on different stages in **njiang, China. Sci Rep 6:36912. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep36912
**ong C, Chen S, Xu L (2020) Driving factors analysis of agricultural carbon emissions based on extended STIRPAT model of Jiangsu Province, China. Growth Chang 51(3):1401–1416. https://doi.org/10.1111/grow.12384
Xu X, Lan Y (2016) A comparative study on carbon footprints between plant-and animal-based foods in China. J Clean Prod 112:2581–2592. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2015.10.059
Yu W-S, Cao L-J (2015) China’s meat and grain imports during 2000–2012 and beyond: a comparative perspective. J Integr Agric 14(6):1101–1114. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(14)60993-X
Zhang C, Zhao W (2014) Panel estimation for income inequality and CO2 emissions: a regional analysis in China. Appl Energy 136:382–392. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.09.048
Zhang Y-J, Liu Z, Zhang H, Tan T-D (2014) The impact of economic growth, industrial structure and urbanization on carbon emission intensity in China. Nat Hazards 73:579–595. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1091-x
Zhang L, Pang J, Chen X, Lu Z (2019) Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from the agricultural sector of China’s main grain-producing areas. Sci Total Environ 665:1017–1025. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.162
Zhang S, Ma J, Zhang X, Guo C (2023) Atmospheric remote sensing for anthropogenic methane emissions: applications and research opportunities. Sci Total Environ 164701. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164701
Zhen W, Qin Q, Kuang Y, Huang N (2017) Investigating low-carbon crop production in Guangdong Province, China (1993–2013): a decoupling and decomposition analysis. J Clean Prod 146:63–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.05.022
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
YY C: methodology; validation; data curation; writing—original draft; writing—review and editing; visualization
DW Q: resources; writing—review and editing; supervision
XL Z: investigation; conceptualization
YC G: conceptualization; resources
CY Z: supervision; data curation
LJ T: supervision; data curation
JW Z: supervision; data curation
XL L: supervision; data curation
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: V.V.S.S. Sarma
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Chu, Yy., Zhang, Xl., Guo, Yc. et al. Spatial–temporal characteristics and driving factors’ contribution and evolution of agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in China: 1995–2021. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 19779–19794 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-32359-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-32359-1