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Dynamic simulation of land use change and habitat quality assessment under climate change scenarios in Nanchang, China

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Abstract

Investigating habitat quality under different climate scenarios holds significant importance for sustainable land resource management and ecological conservation. In this study, considering Nanchang as a case study, a coupled patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) and system dynamics (SD) model was employed in the simulation and prediction of land usage under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) and representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. To assess the habitat quality in Nanchang from 2000 to 2020 and in 2030 under three diverse climate scenarios, we used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to analyze spatial and temporal changes. The findings indicate that the regions of forest land, cultivated land, and grassland in Nanchang City will dramatically decrease by 2030, the construction land will rapidly expand, and the fluctuations in the unutilized land and water area will be minimal. Additionally, the habitat quality declined from 2000 to 2020, and its spatial distributions changed. Zones having a high overall habitat quality were distributed in the mountains, hills, and lake areas, whereas those with relatively low quality were found in cultivated and urban areas. Under three climate scenarios, in 2030, the habitat quality index for Nanchang City will show a decreasing trend, mainly owing to areas with an index of 0.3–0.5 transitioning to <0.3. Considering each scenario, the degree of habitat degradation increased in the order SSP585>SSP245>SSP119. The findings of this study will inform high-quality development and biodiversity conservation in Nanchang City.

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Availability of data and materials

The datasets used and/or analyzed during the present study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Funding

This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC 52168010).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Surveying, Map** and Spatial Information Engineering, East China University of Technology, Nanchang, No. 418 Guanglan Road, 330013, Jiangxi, China

    Zhu-an Chen, Yasi Chen, Ziqiang Liu, ** Zheng

  2. Key Laboratory of Mine Environmental Monitoring and Improving around Poyang Lake, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanchang, 330013, China

    Zhu-an Chen & **aojian Wei

Authors
  1. Zhu-an Chen
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  2. Yasi Chen
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Contributions

Chen Zhuan: data curation, conceptualization, writing—original draft preparation, methodology, software, formal analysis, writing—reviewing and editing. Chen Yasi: data curation, conceptualization, writing—original draft preparation, formal analysis. Liu Ziqiang: methodology, software, writing—reviewing and editing. Wei **: software, writing—reviewing and editing.

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Correspondence to Ziqiang Liu.

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Chen, Za., Chen, Y., Liu, Z. et al. Dynamic simulation of land use change and habitat quality assessment under climate change scenarios in Nanchang, China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31, 2569–2582 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31304-y

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