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Exploring the coupling and decoupling relationship of urbanization and carbon emissions in China

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Abstract

Burgeoning urbanization is a defining challenge for global carbon emissions mitigation in the coming decades. In this context, achieving low-carbon urbanization remains an urgent issue that demands prompt solutions. The coupling and decoupling relationships between urbanization and carbon emissions play an important role in the coordination of urbanization development and carbon emissions reduction, which has rarely been explored in existing studies, especially in China at the county level. To address this gap, the coupling and decoupling relationship between the urbanization level (UL) and carbon emissions density (CED) was explored using an improved coupling degree model and the Tapio decoupling method in China at the county level from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the UL and CED of China both exhibited increasing trends, and the spatial distribution was quite similar, with the UL increasing from 0.018 in 2000 to 0.028 in 2020 and the CED increasing from 95.163 ton/km2 in 2000 to 295.746 ton/km2 in 2020. The spatial distribution of hotspots in the UL change differed with time, whereas that in the CED change was relatively stable. However, both of them were concentrated in eastern China. The coupling degrees of the UL and CED in China were 0.348, 0.355, 0.369, 0.370, and 0.338 in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, respectively, with the moderately unbalanced type (>35%) being dominant at the county level and mainly scattered in eastern China. The changes in the spatial distribution patterns of the 10 subcategories were quite limited, with the systematically balanced type being dominant (89%). The decoupling types of the UL and CED during 2000–2005, 2005–2010, and 2010–2015 were weak decoupling, while those in 2015–2020 were expansive negative decoupling. At the county level, the most significant transition occurred between expansive negative decoupling, strong decoupling, and strong negative decoupling. The proportion of strong decoupling type counties peaked in 2015–2020 (70.86%), whereas that of the strong negative decoupling type counties remained high (17.55%), scattering the country. These findings can advance policy enlightenment of low-carbon urbanization and green development for China against the backdrop of “30·60 dual carbon” goal.

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Data availability

The datasets used and analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

Notes

  1. Due to the absence of economic density data and problems with carbon emissions data acquisition in 2020, economic density data and carbon emissions data from 2019 were used in this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Land Management, Nan**g Agricultural University, Xuanwu District, Nan**g, Jiangsu Province, 210095, People’s Republic of China

    Sipei Pan, Jie Guo & Minghao Ou

  2. National & Local Joint Engineering, Research Center for Rural Land Resources Use and Consolidation, Nan**g, 210095, China

    Sipei Pan, Jie Guo & Minghao Ou

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SP proposed conceptualization and methodology. SP collected and organized datasets and ran models, SP and JG analyzed the results and visualization. SP wrote the original draft. SP, JG, and MO reviewed the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Jie Guo.

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Pan, ., Guo, J. & Ou, M. Exploring the coupling and decoupling relationship of urbanization and carbon emissions in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 96808–96826 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-29111-6

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