Abstract
The perception of spatio-temporal variability of winter precipitation covering dominant water resources and environment over Kashmir Himalaya is a pre-eminent perspective under current social interests. The main objectives of the study are, firstly, to unriddle the whole (1980–2020) and post-2000 trend in the winter season precipitation (WP), frequency of low-pressure systems (Lp-S), and western disturbances (WDs) to understand the footprints of climate change over the region; secondly, to evaluate the spatio-temporal variability of winter precipitation under the dominance of global teleconnection indices, using both station and reanalysis datasets. Modified Mann-Kendell test and a linear regression model were utilized to extract the trend and significance in WP, Lp-S, and WDs. The results reveal that WP shows an insignificant decreasing trend (1980–2020), with an increasing trend post-2000, while a decreasing trend is seen during post-2000 in the frequency of Lp-S and WDs. The contribution of WP to annual precipitation shows decadal variability with a decreasing trend post-2000. The anatomy of winter extreme precipitation days has shown a decreasing trend (1980–2020), with a robust coupled increasing trend with WP post-2000. The dynamics of ten severe WD-based extreme precipitation events show that a cyclonic circulation and trough connects the Arabian Sea and the Himalayas, bringing additional moisture to the study region and resulting in extreme precipitation. The cogency of global teleconnections on the variability of WP shows that a pattern with positive phase of NAO, ENSO, and a negative phase in Siberian high intensifies the WD-based precipitation. The study discovers its applicability for the regional forecast system in predicting the winters.
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Acknowledgements
I would like to acknowledge the Indian meteorological department of Srinagar for providing me with the precipitation data. I am highly thankful to my colleagues for giving insightful suggestions and their support during this research work.
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Junaid dar: I initiated the research by finding a gap in western disturbance over the Himalayas and later on I developed the concept for carrying out this analysis. I collected the Data from IMD Srinagar. I then carried out the analysis and made my first draft for the manuscript and checked the figures and modified the manuscript, corrected the flow in the paper, and prepared the final draft.
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Dar, J. Western disturbances alter the trend of winter precipitation and its extremes over Northwest Himalayas: Kashmir Himalaya. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 83439–83451 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28263-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-28263-9