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Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Control Design Under Multiple Floods

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Abstract

Hydraulic engineerings built on tributaries at the confluence of main and branch streams are significant to river management and runoff regulation. The Flood Control Design Level (FCDL) calculations for these works are directly influenced by tributary floods and supporting effects from the mainstream. However, the determination of design level under main and tributary floods has not been well investigated. To address this issue, the authors proposed a Copula-based approach to analyze the design level under multiple runoff discharge with a case study of the Gui** Ship** Hub(GPSH). The proposed method is compared with the conventional multivariate hydrological elements analysis approach, and the sampling uncertainty is also studied. The results showed that the joint distribution of main and tributary floods is well modeled by Clayton Copula, with PE3s as the best-fit marginal distributions. Furthermore, the different roles of main and branch fluxes in design level calculation can be identified by the offered Flood Control return period(FCRP). And the design levels conducted by the FCRP can avoid the situation over-or-under performed by the OR or AND RP. Moreover, flood combinations uncertainty analysis indicates that the uncertainty of the joint design combinations decreases with the increase of sample size n but increases with the rise of the design T. Finally, the 95% confidence interval and standard deviation of the design level calculated by FCRP are smaller than that of OR RP, which means the FCRP can reduce uncertainty under multiple floods. These results suggest that the proposed FCRP provides an appropriate approach for determining the design level under combined fluxes and serves as a reference for engineering practice.

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Data Availability

The hydrological time-series data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful for the support received as part of the projects funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Numbers, 41807197), the Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi (Grant Numbers, 2018GXNSFAA138042), and the Innovation Team Project of Estuarine and Coastal Protection and Management (Grant Numbers, Y220013).

Funding

This research was partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Numbers, 41807197), the Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi (Grant Numbers, 2018GXNSFAA138042), and the Innovation Team Project of Estuarine and Coastal Protection and Management (Grant Numbers, Y220013).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China

    Yuming Huang

  2. Key Laboratory of Port, Waterway and Sedimentation Engineering of MOT, Nan**g Hydraulic Research Institute, Nan**g, 210029, China

    Yuming Huang & Jian Jiao

  3. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning, Guangxi, 530004, China

    Yanjie Li, Min Liu, Liang **ao & Fuwan Gan

  4. Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Guangxi University, Nanning, Guangxi, 530004, China

    Yanjie Li, Min Liu, Liang **ao & Fuwan Gan

Authors
  1. Yuming Huang
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  2. Yanjie Li
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  3. Min Liu
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  4. Liang **ao
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  5. Fuwan Gan
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  6. Jian Jiao
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study's conception and design. Material preparation, data collection, and analysis were performed by Y.M. Huang, Y.J. Li, M. L, L. **ao, F.W. Gan, J. Jiao. This revised version of the manuscript was written by Y.M. Huang, and reviewed by L. **ao, F.W. Gan, J. Jiao. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Fuwan Gan.

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Huang, Y., Li, Y., Liu, M. et al. Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Control Design Under Multiple Floods. Water Resour Manage 36, 1175–1189 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03066-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03066-8

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