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The trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions over 25 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

  • Nephrology - Original Paper
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Abstract

Background

High blood pressure is a key pathogenetic factor that contributes to the deterioration of kidney function. However, the incidence trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease (CKD) has rarely been studied; therefore, we aimed to analyze the global, regional, and national patterns, temporal trends as well as burden of hypertension-related CKD.

Methods

We extracted data on hypertension-related CKD from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study database, including the incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality numbers and rates (per 100,000 population) and further described according to year, location, sex, age, and socio-demographic index (SDI). The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the variation in incidence, DALYs, and mortality. We used an age-period-cohort (APC) model framework to analyze the underlying trends in prevalence by age, period, and birth cohort. Nordpred APC analysis was performed to predict the future morbidity and mortality of hypertension-related CKD.

Results

In 2019, a total of over 1.57 million new hypertension-related CKD cases were reported worldwide, a 161.97% increase from 1990. Compared to 1990, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) increased in all 21 regions in 2019. In all countries and territories except Iceland, the EAPC in ASIR and the lower boundary of its 95% confidence interval (CI) were higher than 0. ASIR, age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized DALYs rates (ASDR), and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were not identical among countries with different SDI regions in 2019; additionally, ASIR and ASMR were significantly different among sexes in all SDI regions in 2019. The predicted incidence and mortality counts globally continue to increase to 2044, and there is an upward trend in ASIR for both men and women.

Conclusions

Between 1990 and 2019, the ASIR of hypertension-related CKD demonstrated an ascending trend, and according to our projections, it would remain on the rise for the next 25 years. With remarkable global population growth, aging, and an increasing number of patients with hypertension, the burden of disease caused by hypertension-related CKD continues to increase.

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Data availability

The data used for these analyses are all publicly available at the online GBD repository (http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-resultstool).

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Acknowledgements

We appreciate the work of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 collaborators.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Radiology, Sixth Medical Center of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital, Bei**g, China

    Yi Ren & Qingjun Wang

  2. State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Division of Prevention and Community Health, National Center for Cardiovascular Disease, National Clinical Research Center of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College, Bei**g, China

    Zengwu Wang

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Contributions

QW, ZW, and YR conceived the study. YR accessed and acquired the raw data, performed the data analysis, prepared tables and figures, and wrote the manuscript. QW, ZW, and YR revised the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Qingjun Wang.

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Ren, Y., Wang, Z. & Wang, Q. The trend of hypertension-related chronic kidney disease from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions over 25 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Int Urol Nephrol 56, 707–718 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11255-023-03707-w

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